Posts Tagged ‘Investment Strategy Made Simple’

Will the global CPI slowdown continue?

An oil price surge would push end-2023 slightly higher than 4%, but only slightly because it takes a few months for an oil price rise to impact CPI. A US recession could quickly bring CPI below 4%.

Emerging Countries – China and Russia with stable rates, LT rates up only slightly, yield curve inversion less severe except Russia.

Developed Countries – Vast DM Country increases in ST and LT rates, Japan stays an outlier, US looks worst based on yield curve inversion.

Developed Market Regions – ST rates about to peak, LT rates are falling, inverted yield curve in DM Americas and Europe widened. Emerging Market Regions – Massive ST rate hikes in ME&A and Frontier, LT rates more stable, no yield curve inversion in Asia.