ISMS 21: CPI Collapsing Across the Globe

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Will the global CPI slowdown continue?

Global Markets

Global CPI is falling fast in both DM and EMs

  • Economies across the world have a GDP of about US$90trn and an average CPI of 6.2%
  • DM CPI was 5.7%
  • EM CPI was 6.9%

World CPI was 6.2%, down 0.4ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.8ppts

  • DM CPI was 5.7%, down 0.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.8ppt
  • It has moved from being in line with World CPI last year; to the current 0.5ppt discount
  • EM CPI was 6.9%, which is about flat vs. one year ago; MoM it was down 0.8ppt
  • It has moved from being in line with the World CPI last year; to the current 0.7ppt premium

Developed Regions

DM Americas CPI is falling fast, DM Europe is sliding, DM Asia is on a steady rise

  • DM Americas is the largest, with US$25trn of GDP and 4.9% CPI
  • DM Europe has US$14.9trn GDP and 7.1% CPI
  • DM Pacific has US$7.6trn GPD and 4.7% CPI

DM Americas CPI is falling fast, DM Europe is sliding, DM Asia is on a steady rise

  • DM Americas CPI was 4.9%, down 3.4ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 1ppts.
  • It has moved from a 1.7ppts premium to World CPI last year; to the current 1.3ppts discount
  • DM Europe CPI was 7.1%, up 0.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 1.1ppts.
  • It has moved from a 0.5ppts discount to World CPI last year; to the current 0.9ppts premium
  • DM Pacific CPI was 4.7%, up 2.4ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.4ppts.
  • It has moved from a 4.4ppts discount to World CPI last year; to the current 1.5ppts discount

Emerging Regions

EM Europe and Asia CPI falling; Middle East & Africa, and Frontier markets are still on fire

  • EM Americas had a small GDP of US$3.8trn and CPI of 7%
  • EM Asia had a massive GDP of US$25.7trn and 1.9% CPI
  • EM Europe had a small US$3.9trn GDP and a massive 17.7% CPI
  • Emerging Middle East & Africa had a tiny US$1.7trn GDP and a high 11.5% CPI
  • Frontier markets had a US$2.9trn GDP and an extremely high 31.2% CPI

EM Europe and Asia CPI falling; Middle East & Africa, and Frontier markets are still on fire

  • EM Americas CPI was 7%, down 2.4ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.8ppts.
  • It has moved from a 2.6ppts premium to World CPI last year; to the current 0.7ppts premium
  • EM Asia CPI was 1.9%, down 0.6ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.4ppts.
  • It has moved from a 4.1ppts discount to World CPI last year; to the current 4.3ppts discount
  • EM Europe CPI was 17.7%, down 6.1ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 5ppts.
  • It has moved from a 17.1ppts premium to World CPI last year; to the current 11.4ppts premium
  • EM ME&A CPI was 11.5%, up 6.4ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.4ppts.
  • It has moved from a 1.5ppts discount to World CPI last year; to the current 5.3ppts premium
  • Frontier CPI was 31.2%, up 14.7ppts from 1yr ago; MoM up 0.3ppts
  • It has moved from a 9.9ppts premium to World CPI last year; to the current 25ppts premium. This region was up YoY and MoM

Developed Countries

Only US CPI fell YoY; all top 5 DM countries, except Japan, fell MoM; UK CPI is double the US

  • Top five DM countries
  • US GDP was US$23trn, CPI of 5.0%
  • Japan US$4.9trn and 3.9% CPI
  • Germany US$4.2trn and 7.5% CPI
  • UK: US$3.2trn, 10.2%
  • France: US$2.9trn/5.8%
  • USA CPI was 5%, down 3.5ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 1ppts.
  • It has moved from a 1.8ppts premium to World CPI last year; to the current 1.2ppts discount
  • Japan CPI was 3.9%, up 2.7ppts from one year ago; MoM it was up 0.6ppts.
  • It has moved from a 5.5ppts discount to World CPI last year; to the current 2.3ppts discount
  • Germany CPI was 7.5%, up 1.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 1.3ppts.
  • It has moved from a 1.1ppts discount to World CPI last year; to the current 1.3ppts premium
  • UK CPI was 10.2%, up 3.1ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.4ppts.
  • It has moved from a 0.4ppts premium to World CPI last year; to the current 4ppts premium
  • France CPI was 5.8%, up 1.3ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.6ppts.
  • It has moved from a 2.1ppts discount to World CPI last year; to the current 0.4ppts discount

Emerging Countries

Big CPI fall in Russia, China, and India; more minor falls in Korea and Brazil

  • China: US$17.5trn/0.6%
  • India: US$3.2trn/5.6%
  • Korea: US$1.8trn/4.3%
  • Russia: US$1.8trn/3.6%
  • Brazil: US$1.6trn/4.7%
  • China CPI was 0.6%, down 0.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.3ppts.
  • It has moved from a 5.2ppts discount to World CPI last year; to the current 5.6ppts discount
  • India CPI was 5.6%, down 1.5ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.8ppts.
  • It has moved from a 0.4ppts premium to World CPI last year; to the current 0.6ppts discount
  • Korea CPI was 4.3%, up 0.2ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.6ppts.
  • It has moved from a 2.6ppts discount to World CPI last year; to the current 2ppts discount
  • Russia CPI was 3.6%, down 12.9ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 7.5ppts.
  • It has moved from a 9.8ppts premium to World CPI last year; to the current 2.7ppts discount
  • Brazil CPI was 4.7%, down 6.5ppts from one year ago; MoM it was down 0.9ppts.
  • It has moved from a 4.5ppts premium to World CPI last year; to the current 1.6ppts discount

 

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