ISMS 16: Top 5 EM Country Interest Rates – Normal China Yield Curve
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Emerging Countries – China and Russia with stable rates, LT rates up only slightly, yield curve inversion less severe except Russia
Interest rate overview
- China 3m yield 2.5%, India 7.2%, Korea 3.3%, Russia 22.3%, Brazil 13.6%
- China 1yr yield 2.2%, India 7.2%, Korea 3.3%, Russia 10.0%, Brazil 13%
- China 10yr yield 2.9%, India 7.3%, Korea 3.3%, Russia 10.3%, Brazil 13.1%
Year-on-year changes
- 3m yield went up in most emerging countries
- China 3m yield was up 0.1ppts, India up 3.4ppts, Korea up 2.1ppts, Russia flat, Brazil up 1.9ppts
- 1yr yield increases most prominent in India and Korea
- China 1yr yield was up 0.1ppts, India up 2.9ppts, Korea up 1.6ppts, Russia down 4ppts, Brazil up 0.2ppts
- 10yr yield curve hasn’t changed significantly among emerging countries
- China 10yr yield was flat, India up 0.5ppts, Korea up 0.4ppts, Russia down 0.8ppts, Brazil up 1.5ppts
Rate progression
- 3m yield was quite stable in developing countries
- Overall, developing countries have been more cautious in adjusted their short-term interest rates
- 1yr yield was volatile in Russia over the past year; other developing countries remained flat
- 10yr yield almost stayed constant in all emerging countries
Yield curve
- China yield curve remained constant over the past 12 months
- Both short-term and long-term yield haven’t moved much
- As of March 2023, the 10yr yield remained 0.4ppts higher than the 3m yield
- India yield curve flattened massively and looks set to invert
- 3m yield almost reached the same level as 10yr yield recently
- This is a massive change YoY as the yield curve was pretty steep back in March 2022
- Korea yield curve inverted slightly in March 2023
- Russia yield curve stays inverted
- Both short term yield and long-term yield haven’t moved much
- Brazil yield curve inversion has widened
- The inversion accumulated to 0.5 ppts which is a bit higher compared to the previous year
Key points
- India, Korea, and Brazil raised ST rates significantly; China and Russia were stable
- LT rates are up slightly in all EM countries but increased less than World
- Brazil and Korea saw yield curve inversion recently, Russia remains worst
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