Ep753: Therapong Vachirapong – You Need to Take Risk to Earn a Return

Andrew Stotz 00:02
Hello fellow risk takers and welcome to my worst investment ever stories of loss to keep you winning in our community. We know that to win in investing, you must take risk but to win big, you've got to reduce it. Ladies and gentlemen, I'm on a mission to help 1 million people reduce risk in their lives. And I want to thank you my listeners in the United States in Thailand, in UK, Australia, Canada, India, Philippines, Singapore, Germany and Sweden. Thank you all for joining this mission. Fellow risk takers this is your worst podcast hosts Andrew Stotz, from a Stotz Academy, and I'm here with featured guests Therapong Vachirapong. Therapong, are you ready to join the mission?

Therapong Vachirapong 00:48
Yes, well, hey,

Andrew Stotz 00:49
all right. Well, let me introduce you to the audience. Tear Vong is a managing director of banking analyst and strategists at key Aetna kin Potro securities. He joined Procter securities in 1993, and served as a head of research, equity research and banking analysts until May of 2018. He covered fundamental equity analysis of Thailand's finance and securities companies, he also covered strategy and the financial institution sector for Thailand and worked closely with BofA, Merrill Lynch Research Division regional financial team, he was also a part of the ASEAN investment strategy team at the firm, and he won the award for banking and finance, from the securities analysts awards in the year 2006, to 2008, and 2012 to 2013, TierPoint take a moment and tell us about the unique value you are bringing to this wonderful world.

Therapong Vachirapong 01:44
Yeah, I mean, basically, this, this, they think the, the most important in terms of in terms of financial markets is actually the personal experiences. I mean, long experience, it's in the in the market cycle. And markets are actually talking about a longer market cycles, you know, like that board where, for example, like, you know, the monthly cycle, which, for example, like, you know, you if you actually work start working, let's say about 15 years ago, right. I had, you know, a meeting with, with my colleagues, during 2018, you know, discussing about, you know, interest rate trend, and also inflation. And you probably can guess, what will be the conclusion of the meeting, probably about 90% of the people actually, that didn't believe in inflation. And they actually didn't believe that industry will go up this high, like, in the US. If you weren't, I think people back then, you know, 5.5 will be unimaginable, I would say, so long feels like, you know, people actually get used to, you know, the QEII period, zero interest rate, and always, you know, used to mean, we was I would say, you know, basically looking at, can we average, people at Keysight, you know, our style would be about 0.5 That kind of, you know, Norm, and then you remember, like PIMCO essentially came up with a with a term of new normal, that interest rate will stay low, above inflation, standard cetera, et cetera. And suddenly, you know, basically, you now we actually in the in, you know, chronic inflation world, and now, back and forth between, you know, this inflation, or maybe a deflation and going back to maybe back and forth during this time, I think, if you actually, like, you know, even even myself, I have to actually read back the history of inflation to understand what's going on, people questioned about theory, in terms of, you know, monetary theory, or intermittent feeding theory. And because QEII, people actually gave up believing the 100 things, and trying to actually come up with a lot of explanations, like, you know, globalization, you know, location, opinion, fracking to China, you know, etc, etc, to try and to actually justify low inflation, and it's very hard for a lot of people to shift to a new world, like, you know, we are no longer at at that kind of, you know, you know, zero interest rate environment anymore. And that is actually like, you know, one of the, I would say, long experience that could help people to understand that the long market cycles, you know, a bit more leather than like, in looking at, you know, like, 10 year 15 year, you know, average and look, looking in terms of minerals, which is actually more typical Alberto.

Andrew Stotz 04:51
It's interesting. I mean, you and I started about the same time I moved to Thailand in 1992, teaching finance at university, and then I got a job I was an analyst in September of 1993. And I remember that the stock market basically doubled in my first four months of being sitting in my job. And in January, I, the number I remember was 1789 for the set index in January of two of 1994. But it's interesting in this day and age of AI and stuff, where you really see that experience and stories, and having lived through things is something that is now a competitive advantage for us as we've been through many different cycles. But I'm just curious, you know, one of the things that I heard a lot of I know, in Thailand, they complain that there's not enough analysts, maybe analysts want to do other things, I don't know. But I had a friend of mine, just tell me the other day that analysts, the job of an analyst is going away, and it's already gone. And it's just a dying breed. And I have my questions about that, but I'm curious, you know, what you've experienced over the years and what you see now, as far as the job of an analyst, okay.

Therapong Vachirapong 06:09
Well, I can think up quickly, three, you know, factors that might contribute to that, I think, number one, if you remember, when, when when Bernanke actually bought about this MMP, you know, this QE, you know, policies, and, you know, you basically trying to maybe fight it back a little bit at the beginning of the cycle, when in violation actually, you know, when to high intercept went to too low, and then suddenly, they are this kind of this kind of momentum, keep on going and fundamental analysts actually have suffered cannot keep up with the momentum of the of the liquidity driven market. And a lot of that actually got it wrong, could really actually expand by any theory, for example, like, you know, you have 17 trillion of, you know, I've got a bonds actually trading a negative yield, for example, if valuation will be infinity in terms of using a discount rate at the negative number. So that's number one. The QEII actually destroy all the things that we were used as a principle of fundamental analysis. It is a second thing also, I would say, basically, because the structural change that been happening in this time around, you know, from QE, to a, maybe some sort of maybe a things, population everywhere, you know, including Thailand, with the other the fastest aging, you know, country that I've ever seen, you know, we actually gone from aging to ages in 28 years, sorry, but 28 year, sorry, 18 years, faster than any country that I can actually look at the statistics, that actually been a major force, you know, in terms of, in terms of changes, and a lot of equity is actually currently actually on understand what's going on, because this thing happened, like in, you know, 5060 year cycle. Last cycle, you see, the population string would probably be like the end of World War Two, other than you have baby boom, and then you have, you know, still an ongoing our population growth. And you remember, like, maybe 20 years ago, some people actually, some writer actually wrote a paper that, you know, the global or the world would be overly populated. But that's kind of prediction always wrong. But now, you know, on the high side, and now we have a ageing society and that effect, like China effect Japan, you know, 40 years ago, and now it's like in Thailand or Latin Yeah, I think that kind of thing that you know, people actually cannot really come around understand what that what that actually impact the economy and also impacted the fundamental analysis. So that there will be a second thing. I think, third thing I can do my mind is basically like, you know, it basically because of structural change in terms of regulations, if you remember when, when European regulator

Andrew Stotz 09:30
method two,

Therapong Vachirapong 09:31
yeah, and gave a birth to, you know, the passive fund, including, you know, ETF, I remember like, you know, 15 years ago, you know, kind of long, fun, value funds or fundamentals, you know, fun was actually was booming at that time. But, you know, ultimately if it, you know, you know, had come out, we can sort of see clearly that, you know, all the business of this Have this active funds actually gone away, you know, to be more more passive and, and that actually like, you know, it's it's kind of, you know, indirect, it had indirect effects on the demand of fundamental analysis. For example, like, you know, you look at the budgets, you know, fund management, like, you know, backdrop, they have more passive funds an active fund, and some of the active funds actually using hedge fund recycling use less and less fundamental analysis. And also, you look at Thailand. Now, about 20 to 30% of the trading volume now is not on where to trade is basically on high frequency trade, which actually lie on other words, like intraday trade, you know, arbitrage trade, what for, for example, and that actually use a lot less in terms of, you know, in terms of service of equity analysts, so, those three things happening in the in the same way, at the same time. So maybe that's why, you know, equity analysts have had time to, you know, to continue to do what they used to be used to?

Andrew Stotz 11:10
And what kind of advice do you give to young people these days that are thinking about getting into the finance industry, like, I was just teaching a group of students at the, at Chula, who are young, you know, fourth year students wanting to get out there and get to work. I'm curious what you say to them now.

Therapong Vachirapong 11:28
Even myself have to adopt new technologies, you know, we now actually have quant analysis, we have, I think, you have to learn technology to get to get your speed, you know, after the market, because I think all the all the trading, you know, the investment was probably going to even more in the future, going to the technology based kind of platforms. So I think, you know, basically nowadays thing, knowing fundamental analysis, knowing the, you know, all these models, and luckily enough, not enough to actually keep up with the pace of the global financial market developments. So I even actually told my, you know, my colleagues here, when they graduate from bachelor degree, and they've been thinking about whether or not they should because, you know, facility mathematically, or maybe your PhD, they asked me for, for some advisors, and they said, No, we should not have equal exchange. And we look at our diligence, like AI, again, that's going to have a profound impact, you know, in the financial market, including the, you know, the job of the equity analysts. Keep an eye on that. Don't actually look back, we have to look, you know, forward, what's gonna, what's gonna come, I think technology will come in a big, big way.

Andrew Stotz 12:59
And my last question, before we get into the big question, is there any research that you've been doing recently that have some interesting conclusions, or anything that's interesting to you that you've been working on or have worked on in the past year or so? Or?

Therapong Vachirapong 13:13
Well, I have to track I mean, one track, I'm actually covering Thailand, and anyone who actually been following my work, I've been actually under wedding Thailand for the past seven years, he announced, and I actually advising exactly against our business anyway. So been advising investors not to invest in Thailand. That's my take, and, you know, sales team. Quickly, you know, they don't actually like that idea. Yeah, just say battery's dead long. It's actually pretty bad for business. So I'm working on that. Let's see what's going to come up next. I mean, most people now think that because Thailand is one of the worst market this year. So, you know, practically people say, okay, one of the worst last year will be better this year, that's actually going to be like, you know, the trend, I would probably not going to be surprised, you know, Thailand, right? It's, you know, what, right? Yeah. APD, for Karla, and as I said, in the positive tone, without that, you know, in terms of fundamentals, would tell and overcome all the structural headwinds are not

Andrew Stotz 14:24
standing standing like dead. I mean, it's not, because as you say, after this long of a period of underperforming and all that's, you know, certainly in the price, and people have been disappointed for a while. And I'm just curious, like, and you've just highlighted that there's some people that just they like to just, you know, say, Well, what was bad will become good and what was good will become bad. But that's not necessarily a compelling argument. But I'm just curious, like, what is the one or two or three things that you see that Thailand just can't overcome? Such as, let's say population, you know, situation or workforce? Or I don't know, what are the things that you think that make it such that Thailand is somewhat dead? And then maybe one or two things of how you think that Thailand could come back?

Therapong Vachirapong 15:10
Sure. Well, I think definitely. I mean, I mean, for me, I just met some of the regulator, you know, from the fiscal size and also from the monetary size. I don't get the feeling that they actually tap into it. Maybe because the political situation in Thailand in the past, you know, 1218 years, we don't have any political potential to reform the economy. And we need reforms. That's likely, I haven't seen I haven't seen it get a sense. I mean, you know, people actually, like, you know, pollution laws have quick wins, stimulus, free money Hangout, Saturday, is still gonna be like that I don't think will work. That I think that's number one. Number two, I'm actually going to take back some of what I said is actually good or bad, probably does not really matter to market that much. I think it'll be, what market would like to see is incremental change, if bad, become incrementally good, that's okay, for the market. If Good, good market become incrementally bad market doesn't like it. So basically, like, you know, it's a, it's an era of change, and we'll say that affect our prices. Now, we will actually hold for, you know, for like, China, for example, they expect rate of change to be coming from fiscal stimulus, and it didn't come. And the same thing, now people expect, you know, fiscal stimulus will be big, and, you know, some of the policy will be implemented, I think that will be disappointed, in my view. Because I think we lack of politics and percentages, infinitely, especially in the market actually linked to monetary policy, a link to the credit cycle. And that's more than a year cycle. And, you know, the challenge today, the credit cycle is actually at the peak. And what we're saying is actually, the peak is actually higher than 1997. You remember, when he has tomyam, home prices, at that time have a debt GDP of 135%. But we're running at about eight 8%, you know, current account deficit, and it goes up, because we use a lot of the capital, you know, foreign capital to invest in the non tradable goods, and then we have to be valued currency. At that time, that was fine. But mostly it was actually been affected pretty significantly, because the 135 also include, you know, the external debt. So when you devalue the currency, like 135, become 150, you know, in one month, for example, so that kind of disciple,

Andrew Stotz 18:06
yeah, remember, I remember about 25% of total loans by the time we got to 9096 or 97 25%, were foreign, you know, US dollar denominated versus 5%. You know, when, when the kind of be IBF. And the liberalisation stuff was announced? So there was definitely a lot more exposure, is there a lot less foreign currency exposure these days? Or is it a

Therapong Vachirapong 18:32
lot less? Right? So we basically become like, you know, a net exporter of capital. Before we net important capital to invest in Thailand, but basically, we invest in the wrong way. And the second mistake that we could not be any better Thailand did is essentially liberalize you know, the capital accounts, but actually fix the change, right? You cannot do that. I mean, you know, that's and your bank, you are the central bank, you should know better anyway, fine for what it is, here we are. Net, when an exporter of capital, not important, but that doesn't mean that we don't have any problems. The problem is actually on the opposite side, in that time, we have you know, a the external balance issue. Today, we have very weak in a way we domestic God diet dynamics, and that depress the economy and reduces imports and reduce investment. So basically, they become like low growth, and we don't need capital. So we have a good capital everywhere because a lot less ability to invest. If you look at the return on assets of the Stock Exchange of Thailand, is pretty low. So you better actually look at Thai company now, in the past 10 year, they've been investing overseas. I'm not talking about the you know, the FDI by the Thai company investing in Europe, investing in other country Got into turn of the asset in Thailand is too low. So like can be in terms of portfolio change, about 1015 years ago return on equity in Thailand, but 25%. Today seven, you'll be surprised why I'm so bearish for high equity, the seventh exactly how much you deserve to the valuation is quite difficult. But the second thing that if the debt level is really peak, and the default is actually remember that the debt level at, you know, in 1990s, when was actually dominated by corporates. Today, it was actually mostly consumerism, and that is very difficult to do leverage, African political. So basically, it's a different problem. I'm not saying that, you know, which one is the worst, but basically, you have a different kind of, you know, issue there. But I think that that would have to, I mean, the government has to think about how to deal with it. And at the meantime, you know, to be served the growth. So that will be the second thing that the debt level is actually quite,

Andrew Stotz 21:14
it's going back to maybe, I don't know, 1520 years ago, whatever that was, we saw a huge jump in consumer debt. But from what I recall, it was the government at the time, trying to get consumers out of the black market borrowing and into conventional places such as eon as an example and others that were trying to provide a financing. So even if the formal borrowing of consumers went up a lot, maybe, I don't know, 15 years ago, whenever that was, I guess, eon listed in about 2003, or something like that. But if, if we go back in that time, even though debt levels were rising, actually, you could probably argue that the cost of funding for the average type person that could get access to, you know, the mainstream sources of financing, actually, their costs were going down, because they were paying exorbitant rates, you know, to finance their businesses at the markets and other places. But nowadays, everybody's in the formal system. And it's just, you know, it seems like it's a really heavy weight. Well,

Therapong Vachirapong 22:25
I mean, that's, in theory. Right? That sounds about right. Right, you know, trying to maybe bring in all these, you know, loan shark into the legitimate system. And, you know, with a much lower interest rate. That sounds okay, and a lot of people buy to that story. But it wasn't true, actually. So a lot of that actually been created not because not because they actually refinancing launch. Ah, these are the additional new loans. According to banks, Randy's on the manatal. And they believe it also this theory, but they did actually, I think I remember like, you know, six, probably six, maybe six months ago, give a check. They did a survey. And you know, what, the last chapter level had not had not gone down. Actually, it had increase, right. So, assumption of these kinds of things, you know, when you do that, you have to actually be careful, because I'm sure that, you know, at that time, there's no data about lunch, ah, difficult to say, but you presume that, you know, this new loans that actually, this financial system had actually had, you know, created, you know, this basically to refinance loans. And it was not true. And that's why we have a problem every you know, this day because in the system, leverage low high outside his stem leverage, it's actually not falling down. So in the, in the richest, richest household, it is now about eight, nine times and GDP, excluding the launch app. The total was 100 171% of GDP, given that interest rate entire that was in about 20 basis point that would add Lafley, about three to four percentage point in terms of financing costs to the you know, to the system, let alone a GDP in July was going only two or 3%. So that's quite tough. Right? I would say for the maybe have a thing about unconventional, Thailand neither reflation, not a deleveraging might create a vicious circle to the bad debt triangle, and we are actually now in the middle of that. I would say

Andrew Stotz 24:59
one last thing Is I'm just curious where you were on July 2 1997.

Therapong Vachirapong 25:07
I was, you know, stay with the same company. At that time, it was called Petrosian, perhaps out finance. So we are one of the finance have been closed down. And we split our companies, and then, you know, I'm actually at the inner part of the security. And the path theory actually was, so to restore to Merrill Lynch, at that time to see Merrill Lynch, and whether it's actually 2008 being acquired by Bank of America. So I remember that time quite vividly that, you know, we have a problem of, you know, up and downs. And we were the one who actually recommending that, you know, the government should creating the AMC clean up the NPL for the audit, the depositor will have confidence in the financial system. But I remember when I at that time, we weren't we convinced that it's not a partner. It's a reason cooperation. What I did it because I looked at bantalan data, the NPL at that time, 1996 was about only about three to 5%, three to 5%. And then what I did is actually I calculate, you know, I killed by hand, because technology at that time was bad. So I look at the data of the listed corporates, roughly about three and four net about 30 companies. And individually I can calculate, you know, you know, entrusted with a coverage. And you know, what, rather than reporting there are 3%. But the debt of the company that have EBIT a software just below one at a time was about 40% on setlist. I know what you want that, you know, we cannot escape all these prices, but it was too late to do anything. So Yeah. Lucky me that, you know, I'm actually part of the the tequila sides have been actually, you know, been at it, maybe escape, you know, the, you know, the impact of the of the financial crisis, because the theory was was still okay, not having a, you know, a lot to do with the NPS. Well,

Andrew Stotz 27:22
now it's time to share your worst investment ever. And since no one goes into their worst investment thinking it will be tell us a bit about the circumstances leading up to it, then tell us your story.

Therapong Vachirapong 27:34
Okay, is it when you ask me, you know, but you actually send me the email on this question. It will have thought about it the problem actually, I couldn't find any big, you know, mistake that I made. And well, so the answer to you on this question will be the problem of this. This kind of big mistake investment, for me is actually I have to feel what that means is actually I'm here with the worst guy gonna have very strong, you know, kind of belief or rule if you like, your investment rules, number one rule is actually avoid the maximum drawdown. I know exactly the drawdown and the 10 day or best market that contribute a lot for your investment return. If you invest eventually, and you actually cannot avoid or down, you're in return will be reduced by a lot. But you made the 10 best day of the market, you also missed a lot of mechanic, I actually miss board. So the average return that they have. So basically, I'm kind of risk averse. I'm actually like, you know, I, I always buy stuff when it went down a lot. And I always like, you know, hold cash and the market I keep goes up a lot. So I missed a lot on both sides in any way. So that's my mistake. I think, if I if I may, I should have been, you know, taking a bit more in terms of with because you cannot actually increase your return without taking, you know, a calculator that lets you know, for example, you can actually do like, you know, 123 like, you know, one downside to three upside, or you can actually look at, you know, kind of weighted probability of, you know, upwards by the kind of, you know, kind of not really doing that at all. So, I think that my mistake is the opposite maybe opposite of your question, but I think it's actually there'll be a problem to a lot of people here had that if you look at the wealth manager account in Thailand. It has to feel right. I think that most people in Thailand in general population, they do not actually have any, you know, they only have In sufficient financial literacy, they leave money on bank out mostly, or maybe bonds. And that's it, and maybe maybe buying lands and go. So those are actually the majority of financial assets that in our but not not the whole. So basically, you get that. I think I'm trying to think about exactly what the cause of it is, I think maybe because you regulate education in Thailand, you cannot buy any single, you know, curriculum, from, you know, secondary High School to even University. Teaching about financial literacy in Thailand is very strange. I don't know why, but

Andrew Stotz 30:45
Well, I think it's the case all around. When I look at myself, I always say I was a kind of a poor kid from Ohio. And I always saw myself as not having a lot of money. So even as I started to accumulate, you know, well, I was very careful. The other thing is when you're working in the securities business, so also you're making good pay. And so you have less of a need to necessarily go out and try to make a huge return. And then the third thing for me was that in 1995, my best friend and I had set up a coffee factory in Thailand. And that company coffee works now is about getting close to 30 years old. And but basically, I had to make sure that we never ran out of money. And we always had money to pay the payroll. And so I always had to be maybe kind of a barbell strategy where that was extremely high risk investment. And therefore, the other money I had, I had to, I had to be really careful with so what what do you think is a source of what caused you to be in a situation where you didn't take as much risk, let's say, as maybe another person, hey,

Therapong Vachirapong 31:52
you asked me about what I do. So I told you about to track one track is actually doing my job. I live in Thailand, analyzing, you know, banking system, etc, etc. The other part of my job is actually because I'm retiring, coming down, you know, now, less than two months. And I'm actually worried about my colleague, young colleague, who actually just graduated and join us and actually been teaching them in terms of financial literacy how to actually make money. I mean, salary cannot make people rich, that's for sure. So basically, I'm talking about, you know, in terms of compound investment, time value of money, you save early, you make more money, those kinds of thing, exactly, that's my kind of, you know, to track and also, I am actually doing it for my VA account, because I don't, I'm not investing in talent, I'm actually waiting outside, because I compliant, I cannot invest in talent, right, because I have a lot of inside information. So basic and with oversee, so that my to track, like, you know, chasing the young, you know, fully, you know, to understand and to actually start investing early. And also, you know, during my study, you know, in terms of reversing oversee, you know, in terms of CO investment, in terms of, you know, stock, bonds, currency, things like that, I think that that might attract, what I learned key takeaway to things, you know, in my part is I look at the history of all kind of, you know, bad performing, you know, invest that, starting with the best record I have, for example, they'll give me the 30 year with 33% net worth single year of loss, what kind of style he now to Paul to Jones even like Warren Buffett and look at the average returns the path, you know, 2030 year, and it strikes me that the Iraqi I'm actually in the middle, a lovely about 14%. So, how AdMob will be Nike, for example, is actually like a risky kind of people who actually invest in the district asset. So exactly the bet in terms of you know, calculated risks. And you know, to the hedge fund for example, like Dunkin will actually can invest in all kinds of you know, acid in all kinds of cycles, you can chart you can long you know, basically everything thought he actually meant maximize our cycle and these might be very, very good anyway, though, that my kind of kind of, you know, conclusion, you have to check your style you cannot be everything my is it value investing, I invest in, you know, you know, stuff that actually I look at, look at interest value, I look at valuation, the story, the company, etc, etc. And perhaps I'm not actually participate in QE lately, so I missed a lot of the momentum. So momentum trade, that's the moment I've invested a lot of you back into that and I only make money on that. Also, the other one is actually like shot expert. I, the one who actually shot video, like, you know, Michael Burry, like the Big Shot notice. So I had to find myself when actually, you know, talking to my colleague, so you have to find your own style. And just understand it before you actually commit it, you know, into the traditional Batman because it's really a serious business that might kind of feel a second thing that I have been doing.

Andrew Stotz 35:27
And what's, what's a resource that you'd recommend for a young person? You know, you've talked a little bit about some of the teaching and stuff that you've done, but I'm curious, where would you send them?

Therapong Vachirapong 35:38
What do you mean? No, this is actually going out? Mostly, I don't I don't do social media. I don't do podcasts. I don't do anything. I'm not active in any Twitter or this stuff. Not a nearly accident. I do not post anything, you know, in social media?

Andrew Stotz 35:56
And is there any particular book or author that you found over the years that was really valuable for you? Or?

Therapong Vachirapong 36:05
Well, there are lots of lots of book but I think I read he actually read, you know, the capital, we are capitalism. Everyone's gonna be our capital. Sorry. I think that's a good book, how service mob monopolize, you know, you know, the world. And same, I think the same thing is actually like, you know, the Peter Thiel, zero to one, I think, pace of change. And you have to understand it before you start investing in businesses by itself, meaning that you actually have to understand businesses, or change the globalization, technology. And the next thing, you know, the words I keep going up higher. I think the first thing that I actually told my colleague is actually you pick the currency first. I think the first thing because interest rate, I think I may actually become like irrelevant, 2% inflation anchor become, I think engine with a QE program, I think the financial crash every time when actual crisis come, the QE will come. And that will actually set a major kind of major ripple effect to the currency world. I'm pretty sure that that actually will, I think, will tend to buy in the next, let's say, five or 10 years. So you have to pick the right currency, then you have to pick the right market, you know, especially the rest of geopolitics, you actually have to be very, very mindful of that. So those Actually, the thing that I actually have read, there's some book by sleepwalker, say walking into the, into the war in the European war sounds exactly what would help me to reshape and to understand the human history. So I think we are in actually in a mode of sleepwalking as well into a lot of geopolitics things. So I don't have any particular book on that your party, I think you should maybe start reading out as

Andrew Stotz 38:05
well. The book is called capitalism. Without capital, the rise of the intangible economy came out in 2018. Jonathan High School and Stephen Westlake I believe that's the one you're talking about, right?

Therapong Vachirapong 38:17
Yeah, I can add some boom, here. I'm not sure. Even as good. This same as asthma, the same in the draw that actually wrote a very famous, very popular book, The Psychology of money. This is the second one I think it's actually maturity.

38:42
Yep. Morgan.

Therapong Vachirapong 38:44
Yeah. So a lot of the things you mean, some of them like AI? And also this kind of new job? Oh, I bought it. I haven't read it yet. You know, the new job to politic map explaining all the geopolitical become important, like, you know, you have, I mean, you have a lot of a lot of driver into geopolitics, like number one ideology, like the crusade for the democracy versus the socialist, and you have jalapeno differences, you know, the info war in our coming back. Second thing is that the trade war, also actually coming back as well. Prior to the war, you know, the superpower war between US and China, definitely. Willing to the tech, you know, developments, that's for sure. And then you have another one exactly. The economic you know, prices. I mean, I'm worried that you know, if the economic situation in China, you know, doesn't improve, then this would actually intensify. In the next year. We have a lot of elections in a very big democracy world, starting with Taiwan. And hopefully it's not really going to stay up anything. Oh, that a lot of book related that I can't move at all.

Andrew Stotz 40:10
And Morgan Housel was on Episode 255, just when he put out his book, The Psychology of money and the book you're talking about as same as ever, which he's just come out with. I haven't read that one yet, but I look forward to reading it. Let me ask you last question. What's your number one goal for the next 12 months?

Therapong Vachirapong 40:29
Well, I think number one goal is actually start investing, because I'm retiring. I'm actually building my retirement portfolio. So far, so good. I still have a lot of cash in my retirement fund, where actually I have no cash, so I have to deploy it. I have carefully No, not really trying to bash the market. And I haven't tried to pick the winner. I mean, people actually talk a lot about the lies about this currency here. And I have my own views, I pick the winning currency, and pick the winning business and looking at long term trend. So I actually have the balls, you know, in terms of the ball on the faith and currency, and a little bit of the alternative. I'm actually now the next Pokemon also, I will try to build it, you know, and hopefully that will last, you know, the next, let's say, five or 10 years during my time in life, you're

Andrew Stotz 41:26
highly qualified to do that. Well, listeners, there you have it another story of loss to keep you winning. Remember, I'm on a mission to help 1 million people reduce risk in their lives. As we conclude to your opponent, I want to thank you again for joining our mission and on behalf of AES Dance Academy, I hereby award you alumni status for turning your worst investment ever into your best teaching moment. Do you have any parting words for the audience?

Therapong Vachirapong 41:51
Well, I think it's this time around and I just read a lot of the a lot of brokers. Yeah, headpiece, they normally I keep producing like 2024 hour look at the year ahead piece. I couldn't actually find any conclusive or any kind of, you know, theme that I can actually rely on yet. I know the world's actually quite difficult to this day difficult to actually invest but I think stick to your stick to your style stick to your you know your approach and be patient I think at the end of the day it investment is actually not difficult. If you actually don't have you know this mistake of you know in irrational condition I like you know, you have emotionally compromised decision when you see stock price up you start you envy your neighborhood that you know they make money doing that don't do that. So basically you stick to your goal or stick to your you know, your your principal, you will do well.

Andrew Stotz 42:59
Fantastic. Well that's a wrap on another great story to help us create, grow and protect our well fellow risk takers. Let's celebrate that today. We added one more person to our mission to help 1 million people reduce risk in their lives. This is your worst podcast hosts Andrew Stotz, from Bangkok, Thailand saying I'll see you on the upside.