BIO: Vineer Bhansali is the CIO of LongTail Alpha. The firm was founded in 2015 to help provide risk mitigation strategies.
STORY: In early 1993, most investors held a significant long position on the Eurodollar futures contract, betting that interest rates would go down. Vineer decided to follow the herd. The Fed increased rates, and Vineer kept buying until he lost his investment.
LEARNING: Don’t follow the herd blindly. Success in the markets is all about timing. Have an investment framework within which you operate.
“You’ve got to be very humble and disciplined with your loss thresholds and risk limits.”
Vineer Bhansali is the CIO of LongTail Alpha. The firm was founded in 2015 to help provide risk mitigation strategies. Vineer was a partner at PIMCO and started their first hedge fund and also started and managed their quantitative investment portfolio teams from 2000-2015.
He has a Ph.D. in Theoretical Physics from Harvard University and has written six books on finance. He has also run over 60 ultramarathons. He is also an Airline Transport Pilot rated to fly jets and helicopters and has over 4,500 hours of flight time.
Worst investment ever
Vineer started at Citibank in late 1992, just after the 1987 big stock market crash. He was participating in a bull market created by an extremely easy central bank policy. At that time, probably the easiest trade to do was just to buy anything like fixed income or stocks, and it would go up.
Veneer was at some dinner in late 1993, and everybody in that room held a pretty significant long position on the Eurodollar futures contract, betting that interest rates would go down. That should have been a signal that something was amiss. But as a young trader, seeing everything was going up, Veneer also got long Eurodollar futures.
Then as a surprise, the Fed got a little worried in February of 1994 and raised interest rates by 25 basis points. The Treasury market started to fall, and Vineer thought it was a good time to buy, so he bought some bond futures contracts. The interest was raised again in March, and the market sank a little bit more. He kept buying more, hoping the rates would soon go down again. Eventually, his trades were blown over, and he lost his investment.
- Having an original idea is always good because you create value by being different.
- Don’t follow a herd blindly.
- Success in the markets is all about timing.
- Have an investment framework within which you operate.
- The markets are very demanding, and to survive, you need to take care of everything about yourself; your mind, your body, and your health.
- The market is a predator.
- Original ideas create value.
- Markets are a human construct, and you never know which way they can go.
- Don’t get too hooked on your creative idea because it may not be time right for it.
- Have an investment framework and follow it.
There’s a lot of stuff that’s on Vineer’s website that can help with risk management. He also recommends reading The Feeling of Risk: New Perspectives on Risk Perception. Veneer highly advises people at this stage of the game to abandon some of the preconceptions about how stock markets or bond markets work and just go back and do some honest, independent research on what risk management means for themselves as an individual.
No.1 goal for the next 12 months
Vineer’s number one goal for the next 12 months is to stay healthy. For his investors and portfolios, he wants to be very disciplined and positioned on the right side so he can deliver a stellar performance that matches the kind of strategies he has.
“Take care of yourselves, stay healthy, and be passionate about what you do.”
Andrew Stotz 0:02
Hello fellow risk takers and welcome to my worst investment ever stories of loss to keep you winning in our community we know that when in investing you must take risk but to win big, you've got to reduce it. Ladies and gentlemen, I'm on a mission to help 1 million people reduce risk in their lives to join me go to my worst investment ever.com and sign up for my free weekly become a better investor newsletter where I share how to reduce risks and create grow and protect your wealth. Fellow risk takers this is your worst podcast host Andrew Stotz from a Stotz Academy, and I'm here with featured guest Vineer Bhansali, Vineer are you ready to join the mission?
Vineer Bhansali 0:42
Absolutely. Thank you, Andrew.
Andrew Stotz 0:44
I'm excited to have you on particularly because you know, I mean, this show is all about reducing risk. And I think the audience is going to find your background quite interesting. So venir Bhansali is the CIO of long tail alpha. The firm was founded in 2015, to help provide risk mitigation strategies. Veneer was a partner at Pimco, and started their first hedge fund, and also started and managed their quantitative investment portfolio teams from 2000 to 2015. He has a PhD in theoretical physics from Harvard University and has written six books on finance. He has also run over 60 ultra marathons. And he is also an airline transport pilot rated to fly jets and helicopters and has over 4500 hours of flight time near my definition of your bio is also and he is also ultra marathon. Take a minute and tell us about the unique value that you're bringing to this wonderful world.
Vineer Bhansali 1:48
Well, I think I've done a lot of different things in my life, from physics, to running to investing. And I think what that does, especially with some of the things, we're going to talk about worst trades that I've done many of them, each better than the other or each worse than the other. I think it gives you, it gives me especially a very interesting perspective on the commonality between different aspects of our life. And I think, stepping back, I can probably see a lot of the economic and market cycles unfolding. Now that I've been doing this for a long time. It's some of the time is just paying attention to those signals in the common sense to actually manage risk. So I think if there's one thing I guess, I have from doing a lot of different things is the ability to bring a more unified perspective to investing than maybe somebody who's only spent time doing investing in nothing else would,
Andrew Stotz 2:48
you know, when I was a young guy, I saw someone like you and I would think Holy crap, I can't do finance. Because this guy's got a PhD in theoretical physics, you know, I gotta be, I gotta be a brain surgeon. I've got to be a rocket scientist, I gotta be a physicist. But based upon kind of, you know, you've you've seen the all sides of finance. And I'm just curious, like, for a young person that may be intimidated at times that there's really, really bright minds out there. Is there hope? Is there opportunity for that person to find their place in the world of finance?
Vineer Bhansali 3:22
Oh, absolutely. I think there's more hope than ever. And the reason is that the barriers to entry in finance, have gone down to anybody who has the desire, really, that comes from desire, and the motivation, the ability to work really, really hard. And actually really enjoy finance, not just from the fact of the, it helps you make money, obviously, if you're if you're good at it, but also that it's probably the only field where you're self disciplined, is tax. So I tell my colleagues and my employees that probably the most important thing to succeed in finance, if not your educational background, but how much common sense you have and how much persistence you have, how much perseverance you have, and how curious you are. And whether you really like this field for all the intrinsic mysteries, it offers you and then finally sub discipline, of course sub discipline, which we'll talk about a little bit when I talk about the trades are my worst trade is absolutely critical. So a finance teaches you to be disciplined. There's a lot of hope, for sure.
Andrew Stotz 4:32
And, you know, I can't I want to take the time in this episode to talk a little bit generally about risk management, since you've got such expertise in it. And I want to kind of look at it from a simple perspective. But if I think about the typical person who's not, let's say, necessarily that sophisticated, but they've built they build a portfolio at a broker or they're building a portfolio over time, and they're following the guidelines of diversifying During their equity position, so they've got, let's say 1015 20 stocks, whatever that number is for an individual. And then they are trying to diversify across industries by not being too over exposed to any one industry. And they're even trying to diversify against across countries or currencies by having a few countries, companies from different countries, they've built a pretty diversified equity portfolio. Let's say they've done a good job with that. What do you think is the next step for someone like that to think about risk management? How do they? Or should they do anything more with that equity portfolio? Let's say that they have a long period of time they got 2030 years that they're investing for? What are your thoughts about how they should think about the first step of risk management?
Vineer Bhansali 5:49
Yeah, that's a brilliant question. And probably the most important question. So if you have a long horizon, especially important for you, in order to reach your goals, obviously being in equities, you compound growth, you compound, the benefit of the economy, global economy growing into US equities have been and will most likely continue to be the best long term asset class for compounding returns because people go to work and companies grow bad companies go out of business, good companies take their place. So that in generally, generally speaking, equity markets are the place to be. Now the big risk with equity investing is, if you don't do it just in the exact right scaling, as we call it, a right size, then the volatility of the market, which is almost as obvious and maybe even a counterpoint or the other side of the coin, or the fact that equity markets tend to go up and make money over a long period of time, that there will be risk, there will be risk markets will be volatile, markets will draw down very significantly, like we saw in 2020 do. And that's not just a statistical aberration, or an event that you shouldn't expect, that should be something that you should expect, the biggest thing that an investor can do is to be scaled or have a position or other mechanisms in their portfolio. So in those bad events, in those bad periods, they don't panic, and end up doing the wrong thing, which is liquidated at the wrong time. To me risk management, especially if you're an individual investor, looking to compound the value of your assets over a long period of time, it's all about never being in a position where you get forced to make a suboptimal or wrong or bad heat of the moment decision. And risk management is about building enough discipline enough tools in your portfolio, maybe even having less than perfect portfolio some time. So that you can weather the storm, because the storms will come. But that's probably my most important message to investors, when they think about risk management, everything else. Is the product, everything else are basically its tools. But conceptually, that's probably the most important. Yeah, it's great get stopped
Andrew Stotz 8:11
out. Yeah. And it's great, great point is that, you know, it's about it's not so much about I buy this instrument or that thing, right? Oh, you know, I, I tried to hedge this or that. It sounds like what you're talking about is like the mindset and the preparation for when you go in. So that when the tough time comes, you don't freak out and say I gotta get out, which is just the worst thing to do. And so, in that sense, what you're saying, and you were mentioning about kind of self control, self discipline, that it's such an emotional game. And I guess that's one of the reasons why that young person that says I want to work in finance, but I'm not a genius in physics or something like that. Well, you know, there's a place for people that can control their emotion and understand and think clearly in a time of crisis. And one of the things I was would be curious to hear your quiet your answer to this funny question that I'm going to ask is that, imagine that somebody got hit in the head by a baseball bat when they were young. Now, they survived and they were fine. But the only thing that happened is that they really didn't have an emotional reaction to charts and graphs and numbers going up and down. So they were building their portfolio, they had their 20 stocks, they were well diversified and all that and the market was down 50% And it didn't bother them at all. And it was up 100% or whatever that was, it didn't bother them at all. They just stayed the course, is the best thing for that if that person had that ability to kind of stay the course. And they've positioned their portfolio carefully. You know, so let's say we're not we're not we're not at risk in the portfolio of the equity individual equity position so much, but is the best thing for that person just just would that person have the best performance over the long term? Or should they be doing something to try to add to that performance? I'm just curious what your thoughts are.
Vineer Bhansali 10:10
Yeah. You know, the way I think about it is that if a person is completely unemotional with academia, it's the rational investor risk neutral. Pricer, does not ever hedge, but it's always rational, never panics, never as bouts of greed, and fear, and so on, well, that investor doesn't really exist. But obviously, there are gradations. So the person in the case, the example that you mentioned, the person who does not have any fear, in my view, has obviously a good chance to succeed, because they don't panic, they can stay the course, but they also have a very high chance of probably going bankrupt. Because fear is a survival mechanism. So it's somewhere down there in our reptilian brain. And I think there's been a lot of fMRI research and psychological research that shows that fear and greed or pain and pleasure, etc, are related, and they trigger basically the same part of the brain. So fear serves a purpose. And the fear of fear serves a purpose, because it allows you to position your portfolio so that you don't end up in that forward bad position. I think a little healthy dose of beer is good for everybody. But in the case of your perfect rational investor, there's another aspect that they need to be careful about is that all investing has some degree of forecasting involved with it. But you have to, whenever you take a view, you have a forecast of what the expected return is and what the risk is. And markets are very noisy, you always have a lot of uncertainty, there's a lot of noise around that signal. So you're never perfect. And it's very easy to make errors. And if you don't have a healthy degree of fear of making errors, and hence scaling down your position or controlling your risk, the errors sooner or later end up causing pretty big disaster, a part of our risk management strategy is to say, not only do we cover a potentially the risk of the bad events, but they also cover the risk of not being able to forecast perfectly, though a perfectly rational investor still is subject to not being able to forecast the markets perfectly. And they need to have a healthy dose of skepticism or, I guess risk management, discipline and portfolio construction.
Andrew Stotz 12:51
And the last point about risks that I wanted to ask you about and think about is that I wrote a book called How to start building your wealth investing in the stock market, which I wrote it for women. And I wrote it for five women. And the five women are my five nieces. And when they turn 18, I gave them each $3,000. And I said, Okay, we're going to invest this, and I got them into an account at Vanguard and showed them you know, how to invest and but one of the risks that I talked to them about is what I called and I guess it's called shortfall risk, where you, you thought you were safe by keeping your money in the bank. Like you say, I'm not I don't have a high risk tolerance. Therefore, I hold bonds and cash. Well, sorry, there's a cost to everything. And there is no free ride or free lunch. And if you decide that you're going to construct a what you call or your advisor will call a low risk portfolio. You're exposing yourself to shortfall risk that in 20 3040 years from now, you're not going to have made enough of a return to even outpace inflation. And as a result, you're going to be in trouble when it comes time to, to retire, let's say. And I'm just curious, because when all of my career I, you hear very little about shortfall risk, but you hear all of these people in their institutions and their checklists and make sure that you realize that a lot of risk management in companies like banks is actually covering the bank's risk, not yours. And I'm just curious, your thoughts about is shortfall risk of real thing and how does someone protect themselves from that?
Vineer Bhansali 14:36
Yeah, I think it's definitely a risk. And I think there's been a lot of research on the topic that if people live longer, you know, it basically related to longevity, longevity risk, because as people live longer, they come to a point when they want to retire and they find that either because of inflation, or something else because of a severe drawdown in the markets, which resulted in them panicking and selling assets at the wrong time. They don't have enough money now to survive at a level that they were used to surviving. So, indeed, shortfall risk is a very, very important risk. And, and people have devised various techniques to control it, I used to run some strategies when I was at PIMCO on what are now called target date funds. But within those target date funds, depending on what vintage you invested in, you could see different levels of shortfall risk. And one thing was very sure that if you were in a really short dated, target date funds, ie you were very close to retirement, and you didn't have time, for wealth to compound, you wanted to have more in safe assets, like bonds, and so on, which is what we were talking about. Because you know, the time for you to retire and having some sort of definite savings was close by. But if you are really far off from retirement, then the problem is exactly the opposite. The problem is that inflation might erode the value of the bonds, and it's more important for you is to make sure that you keep up with the growth. So you need to have more equities. And having more equity doesn't necessarily guarantee that when it comes to retirement, you'll have more money, or you won't have shortfalls, because during the path of year to retirement, you might end up in a situation where you have a 5060 70% drawdown in the market. And at that point in time, like we were talking about before, you cannot panic, and sell your growth assets. So you need to have either extremely strong discipline. If you don't do that, and you believe in the future, or, which is what we specialize in, you use the tools that are available in the market to actually prevent you almost contractually from panicking, I something like a put option, or, you know, various variations of it. So you can do some simple things pre commit to a set of rules or decision points. So that you don't find yourself in a situation 20 3040 years from now, where despite your best judgments, you ended up in a situation where you had shortfall. So it can very much be managed, it is very much an important risk. And it should be managed. And that's part of the reason I decided to start this firm about seven years ago, because this is not an exotic problem. This is a common problem for everybody. Hmm,
Andrew Stotz 17:31
fantastic. And just to summarize this discussion for the listeners and myself, one of my big takeaways from what you've just said, is that risk management is more than just a tool. It's kind of a state of mind, it's understanding what the true risk is. And that is, you know, what am I going to do when things are horrific? And how do I prevent myself from panicking. And that, that's interesting, because a lot of people, when we talk about risk, we think about an instrument and we think about cash, we think about bonds, you know, I thought for sure that's what you were gonna say, but you came back with what is a state of mind. And the second part that I think I get from it. And it reminds me of the book by Jason Zweig, which was called your money in your brain. And I felt like that was a seminal book for me, because it made me realize that investing is actually a physical activity. And that there, fear actually triggers as you explain a part of your brain that's triggered by cocaine or other things, you know, and that the dopamine hit, and the pain and the pleasure parts of the brain actually make investing a physical activity. And that's what I got from that book. So that would be my summary of what you've just taught us. Right there anything you would add to that?
Vineer Bhansali 18:48
Yeah, I think exactly. Welfare and you know, fight and flight or fight and flight response. When you're faced in the jungle by a predator, you have two choices, you can either stand your ground, or you can cut your losses and run away and, and in the markets, we see that all the time. I mean, I do that still, I've been doing this for 35 years, is the response to a bad trade is to double down or say, Well, that was a bad trade and think about how many times that kind of bad trade led you into more trouble if you decided to double down and say maybe this is one time where I just got to take my losses. And I think the physical training, the physical response to fear of loss is very similar. And that's why, in my view, craving is probably the closest we can come to in today's civilized society to you know what, probably a prehistoric man lived their life in the jungle, because the market is a predator every single day. You have to have a very rational way of dealing with it.
Andrew Stotz 19:54
Oh, I never I never heard that before. And I love that the market is a predator. I think what things I love about the stock market is it's like the last place for AI, I'll call it science. But what I mean by that it's the last place where you can bring your hypothesis and test it. And so for instance, if, if if somebody out there has the opinion that, you know, it's good to walk backwards every morning, you know, for an hour, great, great, you know, could be, somebody else has an opinion that, you know, for health, it's important to have more weight on your body, right? Like that's good for health. Or somebody may have the opinion that the world is flat, or whatever those you can have any opinion and you can actually live your life in a bubble, where you can be even reinforced, you could find people that will reinforce that opinion, even though factually, that opinion may not really stand up to factual or scientific rigor. But the stock market happens to be a place where it is a predator. And what is it preying on? What does this predator prey on? It preys on weakness in emotion, it preys on weakness in logic, it preys on all kinds of things. And so it's kind of like the last truth seeking place. Because I would argue, particularly after the COVID time, I would say that one of the biggest victims of COVID was the truth. Like, it's really hard to get to the truth. And so that's the one last thing I would say is, I'm going to remember that this may become the title of this episode, which is, you know, the market is a predator. So, now it's time to share your worst investment ever. And since no one goes into their worst investment, thinking it will be tell us a bit about the circumstances leading up to it, tell us your story. And I have a feeling that there's going to be some predator in this story. Take it away.
Vineer Bhansali 22:03
So I've had so many, you know, if you've survived doing what I do, or 35 years, my job without having a finance background, I never took a formal class in finance ever. I came from theoretical physics into finance and 1991 92. On a trading desk, I had never seen a bond futures contract before in my life. And I was told at the derivatives desk at Citi Bank. And I was, by the way, I was thinking only of doing that for maybe six months, a year before going and becoming a postdoc in physics. And the only reason I came was seemed like a good sabbatical, to have. And there were some other accidents that happened along the way, I was interviewed by Fischer black, I didn't have any idea who Fischer Black was. But long story short, I started at Citibank, in 1992 93. And if you remember, in 1987, we had the big stock market crash. And the Fed is very aggressively, they created a lot of stimulus, not unlike what's happening today,
Andrew Stotz 23:08
and we call that the flash crash, right?
Vineer Bhansali 23:12
The 1987 flash crash or the stock market crash or the serious crash, so they, you know, they used quite aggressively the when I joined finance in late 1992, early 1993, I was basically participating in a bull market that had been caused by extremely easy central bank policy. And at that time, probably the easiest trade to do was to just buy anything, like it was the last few years by fixed income, buy stocks, whatever. And it would go up and I remember, we were at some dinner in late 1993. And everybody in that room was long, held a pretty significant long position on Eurodollar futures contract, basically betting that interest rates would go down. And that should have been a signal that something was amiss, something was crowded. But as a young trader, seeing everything was going up, I also got slightly long, not very much. And then as a surprise, the Fed got a little worried in February of 1994. They raised interest rates by 25 basis points, nothing happened really but Treasury market started to fall. I thought it was a good time to buy I stood in front of it. I bought some bond futures contract and they raised again, I think in maybe March or so when he five and market fun, a little bit more. And then they came in and did something very interesting. I think. They made a very hoppy statement in April I think and then remember, may they made an inner reading interface and create a 50 basis point. I still thought it was a good time to buy. So I kept stepping in front of this breaker in bond market. Thinking that, obviously, I was at least as smart, maybe smarter than the rest of the bond market and basically got run over by that trade. And at some point, during that trade, I realized that the world had changed that the world moves in cycles, we had gone from multiple years of easing to a tightening cycle where it doesn't really matter how smart you are, it just results in a lot of things blowing up. And if you stand in the way, this freight train, you're gonna get run over. So it was a great educational experience after creating a seriously nice blue dent in my young trader p&l, I was able to, I think, make most of it back by lifting and going with the trend going with the crowds. So, you know, it's probably not the worst grade in p&l terms, because I didn't have a big risk limit at the time. But in terms of the education that I got on economic cycles, central bank policy, market, participants exiting all at the same time, it was probably one of the best lessons. And by the way, if you remember, during that time, some of you have read the story that maybe follow the market. That was when my current county where I live, which is Orange County, California, went bankrupt, because they lost about a billion and a half dollars, which was large enough at that time to put the county into bankruptcy, because the treasurer was basically running a highly levered carry trade, which was exactly opposite of what he should have been doing. The Fed raises rates, but you know, I'll stop there for a second, because there's a lot of parallels with what's going on today.
Andrew Stotz 26:52
Yeah, it didn't shrink, because I started my career in January of, well, let's say in September of 1993. And by January of 1994, the market was at its peak here in Thailand. And it's yet to get back to its prior peak. But, you know, as interest rates start tightening, you know, things start changing, as we've seen in current situation, and how, you know, the first thing I was just thinking about is like, it's, it raises such a challenge, because it makes you think, okay, so I just go with the flow. Am I supposed to come up with an idea that's gonna go against consensus? And when do I abandon that idea, and just go with the flow, which is part of what I'm, you know, was thinking about when you went through it, but maybe you could just summarize how you would describe the lessons that you learn?
Vineer Bhansali 27:45
Yeah, so I think it's always good, I think it finance is always good to have an original idea or is not art, because that's our real value is created by being different. So you never want to follow a trend in a herd blindly. But at the same time, you have to understand that markets are made out of participants who are humans, with their foibles with their psychological biases, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. So it's all about ultimately, it's all about timing. At what time and with what confidence, can you say that your idea is the idea that the market or the herd, if you want to call it that is going to adopt and you know, other much smarter people than me, are much more successful investors than me, like George Soros have said, you know, the trick here is to find what the trend is get on the trend, and then get off the trend before everybody else realizes that the trend is finishing. And I think that there's a lot of truth to it. And to the big lesson here for me is first, you've got to be very humble, you've got to be very disciplined, with your loss thresholds and your risk limits and so on, which fortunately, I was. And then lastly, you need to have a framework within which you operate, which says, you know, there are certain types of signals that are consistent with my thinking are not consistent. And if they're not consistent, then I'm just not going to participate. And that this is where another great investor, you know, Warren Buffett has said, it always pays to be patient. It always pays to wait until you know that what you see is not being contradicted by the market and you have a high degree of likelihood that until the market changes its view, you have a high degree of confidence that it's going to be a profitable trade.
Andrew Stotz 29:40
So maybe I'll share some of my thoughts on what you've just said and your story. I think there's so many different things that you've said that I think are interesting that I've been taking notes. The first is that this market is a predator. The second thing that you just said was original ideas create value. That's such a critical thing for everybody. Think about whether that's in the market or in life, ultimately, original ideas create value. But the third thing that you said that I thought was fascinating is markets are made by humans. And it's a totally human construct. And so it can, you know, you never know which way you can go. And then I just took a note, when you were talking, thinking about kind of the value of trends and trend following and don't get too hooked on your creative idea. Because, you know, it may not be time right now, or whatever. And then the last thing I took is you said, have a framework, and then I wrote down and follow it. And I use a framework called F VMR. And I developed this many years ago, because I found as a, as an analyst, looking at individual stocks, I would get really excited about a particular stock, and then it wouldn't move, even though it was cheap. And I was like, you know, wait a minute. So valuation is not the only factor that is that I should be considering. So I look at fundamentals, valuation, momentum, and risk, which I call fdmr. And it's the momentum part that really helps me a lot, because momentum tells me if you know, for instance, to give a good example, I about a year ago in our strategies here for our clients in Thailand, I basically was convinced the Fed is not going to raise interest rates by you know, 100 200 300 400 500 basis points, you know, it is not going to happen, they're not that dumb, you know? Well, it turns out, it wasn't them that was that dumb, it was me for thinking that. So I had a position initially thinking that they weren't going to do it. But because I have a framework, and I follow it, momentum was going against my trade. And eventually, I had to switch. And I did switch pretty quickly in momentum helped me to get out of it. So and I would say, I'm not catching the bottom, and I'm not catching the peak, like you've talked about what Sorrell said. So I think that final one. So markets, predator, original ideas, create value markets are made by humans and have a framework and follow it. Is there anything you would add to that?
Vineer Bhansali 32:11
No, I think that I think the only thing I would add to the markets are very demanding. And for anybody to survive in the markets, I think the best kept secret I have, at least at least works for me is you need to take care of everything about yourself, your mind, your body, your health. Because it's a very competitive game, sport, whatever. It and profession indeed, for me, to survive in it, you need to be basically on your A game all the time. And if you're not those other four things that we mentioned, probably not going to help you very much, because then you won't be able to execute upon what you need to execute upon. So to those four, I've had that path is trying to take care of all you. Because it really does matter on how you survive or not survive, or you know, in this in this marketplace, zoo. Great,
Andrew Stotz 33:12
great advice. And I think I am getting close to 60 now and I had some young people that had seen me many years ago, and I saw them a couple of days ago. And they said something that people often say which is you look the same, you know, you haven't really aged well, of course, that's the benefit of going bald right at a young age because you know, basically yellow gold then and then you know, but but they asked me about it, I just said look, I, I sleep well, I go to bed early. And I exercise pretty much every day. And I eat healthy, I don't drink alcohol, and I don't do drugs and things like that. And I eat very healthy food. And so it's like when you bring together nutrition and sleep and exercise. And also I don't have stress in my life, I remove stress a long time ago, I don't use the word stress when I learned that it was such a dangerous word. So I replaced the word stress with pressure. And so I can handle pressure, but stress kills. So I tried to understand that so to keep emotionally fit. Also, when I get Hungry, Angry, Lonely or Tired, I talk to somebody you know. So I think the point is, is that if you take care of your whole self, you're going to be in great shape. So let me ask you, what's a resource that you'd recommend for our listeners?
Vineer Bhansali 34:33
Oh, I mean, there's so many resources depending on what dimension of your life and of your work and profession. You're looking at. I think, for today's topic, which is more about risk management, and get to kind of managing yourself. I mean, there's a lot of stuff that's on our website, long term alpha.com You can go and look at Look at there. But there's also a lot of other authors, you know, great books, though I wouldn't pick one particular paper or book, or text, but I would highly advise people at this stage of the game to maybe abandon some of the preconceptions about how stock markets or bond markets work and just go back and just do some honest, independent research on what risk management management means for themselves as an individual, what is risk for themselves? There's a great book I wrote, I read by some psychologists recently on this concept of the feeling of risk, I think it's possible they are one of the famous psychologists and financial risk. And that's a great book, I would recommend people reading it. Because it tells you that risk is not just quantitative modeling. It's not just looking at probability distributions and option prices and all that there's something about, you know, just how you feel about not being positioned at the right place at the right time in the right size, so many resources on that topic.
Andrew Stotz 36:16
Do you remember the what the name of the book or the author?
Vineer Bhansali 36:20
Yeah, it's called the feeling of risk by Paul Slovic. But I'll text it to you later on.
Andrew Stotz 36:25
Yeah, and I'll have that, plus your books and your website in the show notes. So let me ask you one last question. What's your number one goal for the next 12 months?
Vineer Bhansali 36:37
I think good mostly to stay healthy. And I think you know, what's happening here is I am fairly healthy, the markets are changing, we're going undergoing a regime shift. And for our investors, and for our portfolios, what we would like to do is as regime shift accelerates, we want to be very disciplined position on the right side and deliver the kind of performance that we think we can deliver with the kind of strategies we have. So we're very focused on really paying attention to these big ones in a career or maybe once in a decade type of regime shift that happened and make sure that we're focused and we can take advantage of them.
Andrew Stotz 37:23
Well, listeners, there you have it another story of laws to keep you winning. Remember, I'm on a mission to help 1 million people reduce risk in their lives. If you're not yet join that mission, just go to my worst investment ever.com and join my weekly free become a better investor newsletter to reduce risk in your life as we conclude venir I want to thank you again for joining our mission and on behalf of a Stotz Academy I hereby award you alumni status for turning your worst investment ever into your best teaching moment. Do you have any parting words for the audience?
Vineer Bhansali 37:54
No good luck and take care of yourselves and stay healthy and be passionate about what do you do? Thank you very much.
Andrew Stotz 38:01
Fantastic. Well, that's a wrap on another great story to help us create, grow and protect our well fellow risk takers. Let's celebrate that. Today. We added one more person to our mission to help 1 million people reduce risk in their lives. This is your words podcast host Andrew Stotz saying, I'll see you on the upside.
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