Ep551: Anthony Milewski – Do You Understand the Country Risk?

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Quick take

BIO: Anthony Milewski is an investing veteran and Chairman of Nickel 28 – a battery metals-focused investment company focusing on metal streaming and royalty agreements.

STORY: Anthony and a friend partnered to drill oil in Indonesia. They pooled $10 million and hit the ground running. After facing one disaster after another, the partners gave up on the venture, having spent all the money, and not a single well was dug.

LEARNING: Understand the context of the foreign country you’re investing in—research both the expected return and expected risk.

 

“Why are you investing? Do you need to do this? What’s the alternative?”

Anthony Milewski

 

Guest profile

Anthony Milewski is an investing veteran and Chairman of Nickel 28 – a battery metals-focused investment company with a focus on metal streaming and royalty agreements. The company trades on the Toronto stock exchange.

Anthony has been active in the battery metals industry, including investing in cobalt and actively trading physical cobalt. Previously, he was a member of the investment team at Pala Investments Limited, a leading venture capital firm.

Worst investment ever

A former partner and friend in Australia shared an idea with Anthony about these oil drilling blocks coming up for auction in Indonesia. Anthony figured it was a good idea, and so the two partnered and raised roughly $10 million. They were awarded a block.

The two partners thought they were to drill a couple of wells and become oilmen. It never happened.

They faced one disaster after another, from corruption locally to landowners fighting them to the inability to mobilize because they were being held to ransom by locals. Ultimately, they spent all the money they had raised but never drilled a well.

The partners’ undoing was their naivety to how complicated it would be to do an oil and gas deal with local landowners without a strong local partner.

Lessons learned

  • Understand the context of the foreign country you’re investing in.
  • If a return feels out of whack, even if experts are right, always make sure that you understand the risk.
  • When you see a return that looks like an outsize return, ask why? Then identify what the why is because that is the risk.

Andrew’s takeaways

  • Split your research between the expected return and expected risk.
  • Reducing risk reduces the expected return.
  • Understand your investment environment.

Actionable advice

Be thoughtful when investing in places where you don’t know anything about. Work with a management team that has an edge in that place. And if you don’t trust that investment, buy something else.

No.1 goal for the next 12 months

Anthony’s goal for the next 12 months is to do a triathlon.

 

Read full transcript

Andrew Stotz 00:02
Hello fellow risk takers and welcome to my worst investment ever stories of loss to keep you winning. In our community. We know that to win in investing, you must take risk but to win big, you've got to reduce it. Ladies and gentlemen, I'm on a mission to help 1 million people reduce risk in their lives to reduce risk in your life, go to my worst investment ever.com today and take the risk reduction assessment I created from a lessons I've learned from more than 500 guests, fellow risk takers, this is your worst podcast host Andrew Stotz from a Stotz Academy, and I'm here with featured guest, Anthony molesky. Anthony, are you ready to join the mission?

Anthony Milewski 00:44
I'm ready. Thanks a lot for having me today, Andrew.

Andrew Stotz 00:47
Well, I appreciate having you. In fact, I'm really interested in what you're doing. So let me introduce you to the audience. Anthony is an investing veteran and chairman of nickel 28, a battery metals focused investment company with a focus on metal streaming and royalty agreements, that company trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange, Anthony has been active in the battery metals industry, including investing in cobalt, and actively trading physical cobalt, I'm picturing you Anthony lifting up cobalt, which I think would be dangerous. Previously, he was a member of the investment team at pala Investments Limited a leading venture capital firm, Anthony, take a minute and tell us about the value you bring to this wonderful world.

Anthony Milewski 01:32
You know, I spend my life investing in commodities. And that ranges from as you said, Nicole, you know, we're the largest producer of MHP in the world, it's a type of nickel that goes into batteries. But not just that, you know, we we really seek to think about what the future is going to look like, get ahead of that trend, and invest in those trends, you know, over the years, that's included things like copper, cobalt carbon credits, you know, it's it's one thing to just go along and, you know, express some sort of a, an investment thesis, I think it's quite another to try to predict whether the markets going or what the future is going to look like. And that's where you can really make outsized returns, if you're right on your bets.

Andrew Stotz 02:16
And so what your focus now is, Nico only?

Anthony Milewski 02:21
No, I mean, what I'm really focused on is this global energy transition, and encompasses almost everything and every company that we're a part of, you know, in, if it's a retail company, you know, maybe it has to do with carbon offsets. And the way that people can think about sustainability. If it's a different type of company, like say, Electric Vehicle Company, you have to ask yourself, Where are they going to get the nickel? Where are they going to get the copper? Where are they going to go lithium for the batteries are the aluminum, the chassis of the car. And so as we transition into a time, when there's much more focus on sustainability, and transitioning away from a hydrocarbon based kind of world, you know, we need to think about the mining the metals, and the different commodities that help and assist with that transition, that transition is well underway. And you know, and I would challenge your listeners, I'm sure that there's a wide diversity of listeners here, look around the room that you're in, right? Everything you see is either mind or groan at its most basic core. And so when you're thinking about these new ideas, whether it's AI, well, that's powered by computer systems, as computers have microchips, as microchips have basic materials in them. So no matter no matter what you do, in this world, if you want to live a modern life, you really need exposure to these different minerals and these different commodities. And, you know, what we do is think about where the world is going, and what commodities are going to be consumed as we transition into this different future.

Andrew Stotz 04:00
It's interesting, because, you know, if you go back in time, the commodities were forests, you know, to make wood to make houses or, you know, the simple things like stones, you know, and rocks to make cement and to make buildings and then steel to make buildings and in Thailand here, we build a lot of buildings with cement. And, you know, you think about when we think about those types of like materials, we oftentimes think about these old style things, and we forget about the fact that in order to transition to where we're supposed to be going, it's taking some very unique, you know, levels of these types of metals that, you know, in some cases, the mining of these metals also has, you know, issues too, and it's just like there's so many things

Anthony Milewski 04:52
have profound profound impact on like me, I will tell you copper, by way of example, is absolutely critical industry. In addition, because electricity power is transmitted through copper, and that could be as simple as you know, different types of transmission lines, but that also is inside of your phone and inside of your computers. And as we become a more technologically based society globally, we're going to consume more and more potentially different types of minerals and different types of metals and elements. And you know, for us, they're not like the use of wood is not going away. It's just that you know, certain types of, you know, scandium would be an example, no one's heard of scandium, well, that's used to alloy aluminum. And, and while it's kind of irrelevant today in a decade is going to be very relevant. And so, you know, I think when you're investing, especially if you have a time horizon, it's beyond the next six months, which I don't think a lot of investors do today, unfortunately. But if you do have a longer time horizon, and are prepared to take a view, you can really enter into certain types of situations at a very low cost basis. Now, that also implies a greater risk to I mean, if you, if you're in there early, and you know, something changes, you have a greater reward, there's sort of greater risk.

Andrew Stotz 06:08
And when somebody is investing in your company, they're investing in a holding company, an investment company, an operating company, how does it work?

Anthony Milewski 06:18
Yeah, I'm invested in a bunch of different things that you know, nickel 20, I'm the chairman of, and when you buy that equity, it trades on the Toronto Venture Exchange, what you're really getting is our interest, roughly a 10% interest. And the RAMBo mind, which is, as I said, the largest producer of MHP, its type of nickel in the world. It's operated by a partner, MCC. And so that's really the value. particular company is our operating partnership and a nickel mine. And, you know, it's interesting, I mean, there's been sort of some debacle and nickel lately, which is a whole separate podcast. But if you look at the ability to invest in nickel, it's pretty limited for your average investor, simply because a lot of Nickel Mines in the world are buried inside of much larger companies. And so when you're buying that company's equity, you're really getting exposure to you know, 10 different mines like in valet or something like that. And so there aren't too many opportunities to invest in a producer, there are plenty of opportunities to invest in an exploration company or development company, it's a really different risk profile. So I think it's uniquely positioned in particular, the TSX, where they only appear would be a company called sherut. But their mind is in Cuba, and US investors can can't really buy that equity. Or at least institutional investors don't buy that equity because of the Cuban exposure.

Andrew Stotz 07:43
And we did have a guest on the show before EB Tucker. And he, he the reason why I'm thinking about that is because you mentioned in your bio, about a metal streaming and royalty agreements, can you just explain what that is because some people when they think that they're investing in something, they may think, Oh, he's got a warehouse full of nickel ore, he's got a mind. But there's other ways to invest in it,

Anthony Milewski 08:05
ya know, there's lots of assignments. So first of all, our nickel participation is really a joint venture. So we are owners of the operating company, but streams and royalties, you know, it's kind of a unique way of investing. So royalty is, and there's a bunch of different types, but in its simplest form, you get a percentage of the revenue. And that might be before cost or after costs. And you know, in Canada that that royalty sits on the title of the underlying mineral or agreement, and, you know, you don't have exposure to capex now you ultimately have exposure to cap x, because if something happens in the mind stuff, operate stops operating, you don't get paid. But I think in particular, in the gold space, it's perceived as being a safer way to invest. Because you know, you don't have a company that's going to be continuously issuing equity, to find a gold project that's going to come in two times over budget and three times longer than it should. So you still have the risk, that that mind never gets built, or doesn't operate. But you don't necessarily I'm talking about a royalty don't carry the capex risk associated with an equity where you're building a mine. And so I think that's why these companies like Franco Nevada and wheaton precious have become so popular is because of the diversified. It's a diversified way of investing in streams and royalties. Now stream is a little bit different. Because oftentimes, in a stream, you actually have the ability to take the physical metal. And so, you know, it's in its simplest, most basic form, if you wanted to think about it almost as a prepayment. And that's not completely accurate. But you know, I'm paying you today for a future delivery of these metal, and potentially, I'm paying you at a fixed price. And if the price goes up, then you know, I get the benefit of that differential over where we made the agreement. So there are two separate agreements. Um, I think, in particular, the stream has the benefit of a lot of times of being able to take physical, and that's particularly interesting for base metals. And, you know, not not as much for gold because gold, frankly, is so liquid, that people just, they don't take possession of the gold by and large for other types of metals where you actually might want the physical for some purpose. In fact, you've seen trading houses do these types of agreements, so that they have the optionality around the physical. So I think that's a very simplistic way of thinking about the two of them. But from the perspective of an investor, it's really a way of thinking about risk when you're investing in a sector. And I would say, by a wide margin, it's most developed for precious metals, right, gold, right. So even PGMS, there are, you know, altos is an example of a base metal royalty company. But it's just a fraction of the size of Franco Nevada, or precious.

Andrew Stotz 11:04
So if we talk about, you know, just to explain it to the audience, some people may not totally understand it, what I'm gonna try to describe it, you correct me if I'm wrong, but so the first thing that you said, it made me think about, you know, if you got invested into some sort of, let's say, a nickel mine, as an example, you're into a very heavy capex type of business, that could go over budget need more money, and if you're owning 5% of that particular company, or 10%, of that particular company, they're going to come to you and go, we need more money. And if you don't have it, you're gonna get diluted down. So ultimately, you're going to probably want to have to put up so for the people that invest in that they want to deploy a large amount of capital that then is used for the capex, that's used to actually execute the mind. But when it comes to royalty, what we're talking about is taking a small percentage of the revenue or the output of that mine. And my question, so my first thing is, Did I explain that right? So if you take a percentage of the output, that's

Anthony Milewski 12:08
a pretty that's a pretty fair characterization. I would also note that your description is really every junior mining company on Earth and oil and gas company, right? Oh, we've got a project. It's too complex. We have $100 million market. I mean, that's really your description is exactly that. Now, typically, what happens is a royalty is sold by management team earlier in the project. So you know, it's the feasibility stage pre feasibility stage, you know, or even maybe they're building the mind and they need to think about cost of capital and how they can raise that mine was minimising dilution to whoever the shareholders are on the equity side. And so oftentimes, you know, that royalty is sold at a risky stage. You know, it's pretty rare to have a new royalty written on a producing mine. That's a pretty rare thing. And if you have is a royalty is being sold. early on. I'll give you an example in our company. We own a royalty in Dumont. So Dumont is a shovel ready project in Canada, a nickel mine, right, right. That's a $2 billion capex. So you know, one half billion, whatever the numbers, I don't know. But what I would say is, it doesn't matter. Either it gets built or it doesn't get built from our perspective as a binary outcome. So we don't we're not exposed to that dilution at Dumont right now, right. So if you were an equity shareholder, and it's a private company, but if you were an equity shareholder, and Dumont, you'd have to figure out, like, how can how do we raise money and not get deleted, and so it's really just a different way of looking at it. But if Dumont is never built, then the value of that royalty is really just an option. So it trades is an option. Now, what happens with these royalties is through time, and Dumont as an example of du monde goes into production, then, you know, the value of that royalty becomes, what is the cash flow? What do we think the price of nickel is, you know, a discounted cash flow model over 10 years. And so, you have a royalty today that it has a value an option value on that might be built. But over time that transitions into some sort of a nav based model, you know, this kind of cash flow model as it comes into production. And so, I think that these royalty companies what they're doing, and I'm speaking more specifically to the precious metals, as you know, from their perspective, with royalty, they're hopefully buying these royalties as options. And then through time, they trade not as an option, but then as an actual function of cash flow. And that's a simplified way of thinking about it.

Andrew Stotz 14:48
And what you said was that it typically happens in the beginning of the investment phase for the mining company, let's say when they've got they're getting their initial funding, but when it Think about the word royalty, I'm thinking that that's coming on revenue when they don't have the revenue there. But I guess what you mean is that you as an investor are going to estimate your present value of all of those future cash flows and say, This royalty is worth 10 million bucks to us. And therefore, we're going to pay upfront that amount, knowing that we're gonna get, we're gonna have a binary outcome, but if it works, we're gonna get, you know, a big payout of consistent cash flows relative to the revenue that comes out

Anthony Milewski 15:31
the order of magnitude 10 million, then you would hope it might be worth a couple 100 million if it pays out. Right. And, you know, I would be willing to bet if you could, like, look inside of the books of Franco and wheaton, they have scores, maybe even a hundreds of these things, on projects that might not go for 100 years. And that's why, by the way, that I think a lot of these companies have transitioned into doing large streaming deals, a lot of the most interesting streaming deals are done as part of the capital structure, when they're raising the financing to actually put it into construction. So it's a much later, a much different risk profile, you know, because when you're going to raise a billion dollars of CapEx, a lot of times you have to hedge out or forward sell that production and take or pay contract, such that they can lock in debt financing. In terms of modern mining, finance, a stream, it's almost standard now on newly constructed mines that are being constructed outside of, say, Rio Tinto or, or one of the really big bhp or something like that.

Andrew Stotz 16:41
Excellent. Well, that's a great description about what you're doing. And now it's time to share your worst investment ever. And since no one goes into their worst investment thinking and will be, tell us a bit about the circumstances leading up to it, then tell us your story.

Anthony Milewski 16:56
Yeah, so this has been, maybe it's been over a decade now. You had a really interesting oil, oil and gas market at the time. And, you know, a former partner and friend in Australia had this idea, you know, look, there were these blocks that were coming up for auction in Indonesia, in Sumatra. And there's a lot of data on them. And historically, you know, historically had seismic shot over them. And it looks really interesting. I mean, there were oil seeps. And this is really a story of understanding risk. I think, from my perspective, we've talked about that. And why returns look the way they do and how, if it's too good to be true, it might be. And so, you know, we went out and we raised roughly $10 million. Through this process, we ultimately were awarded a block. And we thought for sure, we're gonna go and shoot 3d seismic and drill a couple of wells and become oilman. And as it turns out, as it turns out, it never happened. And, you know, what ended up happening was one disaster after another, whether it was corruption locally, whether it was landowners fighting you whether it was the inability to mobilize because you're being held to ransom by locals. And ultimately, that sort of six or $8 million was spent and a while was never drilled. And the reason, you know, I think the reason when I look back on this situation, is it's all about understanding the risk. And what I mean by that is, when someone shows up with a Nigerian project, and they're gonna tell you, it's a 70% IRR on paper, and maybe it is but actual, in actual fact, there's a reason why these deals are priced the way they are. And I think it's really understanding the context of the country. And, you know, that's not just by the way, Indonesia, in this case, where Nigeria, could also be if you're in Nevada, and Nevada, the state of Nevada might be different than the state of Arizona. And I would say that, you know, too often when you hear a story, and then not just mining but in oil and gas in this example, someone will come in and tell you how this country has changed this country. At this time is different. And the truth is, it probably hasn't changed, and it probably isn't different. And if the profile that they're showing you the return privacy of others showing you is too good to be true. You know, it's not that it's not true. In actual fact, if we had managed to drill those wells, and we had head oil that those returns would have been returns. It's just that what you don't see or understand is the risk and you don't really kind of really fully appreciate that geopolitical risk that you're taking on. And another example could be Russia. You know, think about how hard it's been to finance Russia over the last decade. You know, initially I For the fall of Soviet Union, Freeland had an oil deal in Kazakhstan. Yeah, a lot of the big names in the industry had had deals in Russia, a lot of them got blown up too. And so you know, it was a very expensive to raise money for gold deals and different types of deals in Russia. And, and it felt like it shouldn't be. And then look at the war look at the war in Ukraine now. And now you realize why it was because actually, the market is kind of efficient at pricing in the risk. And so in our case, in Asia, I think we were naive to how complicated it was going to be to try to do an oil and gas deal and deal with the local landowners and not have a strong partner. I think that's kind of universally true. And not just emerging markets. But in any market. If you're seeing a presentation, and that return feels kind of out of whack with peers or similar companies, even if the geologist is correct, and right, or even if the metallurgist is right, in the question, you really have to understand what is the risk? Like, do I understand the country risk? Do I understand the politics? Am I like, that doesn't mean you shouldn't take that risk. It just means that you really need to understand it and appreciate that you're not getting a physical are for a layup. Yep. You know, and I think that's one of the things about investing in the commodities business, is that commodities are commodities and

Andrew Stotz 21:26
creating them out of the ground. Yeah,

Anthony Milewski 21:28
exactly. So the price of copper, and a certain form is universal. So why is it that this project looks so much better? Well, it's sitting in the Congo, like, let's face it, that's a hard place to operate. Yep. And so I think when your readers and listeners look at projects, and think about projects, it's really worth kind of delving into understanding the risk associated with that jurisdiction. And accepting that they want to take on that risk, and also understanding that it's not as simple as country risk and states as an example, you know, on a state by state basis, a project is approved. So even when someone comes to the US copper project, it could be completely different based on whether it's an Idaho or Utah or Oregon, right. And the more money you're putting into the project relative to your own personal circumstance, the more important it is to really fully understand that risk. Because I like what I've observed over my career. And, you know, as this is one example, I can tell you, there's lots of times it's gone wrong in Mongolia in different places over the years. I think getting that risk wrong is one of the things that can be exceptionally troubling and challenging for any project, because the flow of the flow through is often permitting, you know, so you know, getting that country risk wrong. It's one thing if you're getting kind of stitched up by landowners or something like that, but oftentimes, it translates into your ability to get permits and your ability to do business. Yep.

Andrew Stotz 23:06
Just out of curiosity, how did it wrap up? Like, how did you guys at what point did you just say, well, this isn't gonna work anymore? And we're exiting?

Anthony Milewski 23:15
Yeah, I mean, it took a long time, because we really thought we could get through it. I mean, we really thought that, and the company ultimately transitioned and other assets and moved on. But yeah, and I think that's just definitely, you know, this idea of sunk costs is important, like economics costs, because it's very challenging with any project, you start heading down the path, you raise money, you committed to it, and then to change directions. And, you know, oftentimes, it's almost not possible if it's a junior mining company, or junior oil and gas company, because the resources have been committed. And the company only has one project, as it can be very challenging for a management team to change direction, even though they should. Yep. And so I think that's another important point.

Andrew Stotz 24:04
So how would you, how would you, let's just go back, you've, you've gone through a lot of lessons that you learn, but how would you summarize that into a couple of key points?

Anthony Milewski 24:14
I think the key point is, understand that when you see a return that looks like an outsize returns ask a question, ask the question, Why? Why is this special? Like why? Why is this time different? Why why? Yep. And then identify what the y is because the Y is the risk, usually? Yep. Oh, it's in. It's in Zimbabwe, okay. That's the Y. So then, once you identify the Y, or maybe the Y can be different, like, oh, it's an $8 billion. CapEx, so it's the world's greatest Gold Project, but it's a billion dollars like the why is like is anyone going to finance that? You know, or it's coal. The why is like, you know, none of the endowments can own it. So I think just kind of asking why is this outsize and why is this return 100% IRR, just whatever the nonsense is like, why is it? Yeah, because that really brings you or brings into focus what the risk is, in my opinion.

Andrew Stotz 25:20
So maybe I'll share a couple of things that I take away from the story. I mean, the first thing is that I've interviewed a lot of people now. And I've identified six common mistakes. And the number one most common mistake is people fail to do their research. But I like to talk about research as kind of research into the return of a project. And then the second thing, most common mistakes is they failed to properly assess and manage risk. And so I like to say, you know, split your research between the research you do on the return that you're expecting and the research that you're doing on the wrist that you're expecting, it helps you to kind of not get overwhelmed with the return. And so this is really a story about understanding risk. And that, you know, you said something that I wrote down right when you said it, which was on paper. And we have to remember that, you know, there's all kinds of people sitting in offices making PowerPoints, and Excel spreadsheets, and it's all on paper. The second, the other thing that I thought about is, you know, there's a legal slash corruption costs. In fact, one of my first bosses here in Thailand had invested in Indonesian company. And at some point, he was doing something and he decided to go to Indonesia and look after the company for a little bit. And he ended up finding himself in jail for three years, because they locked him up because the company had some tax liability that he didn't know. And then he arrived, and then he grabbed him. And so he spent three years in an Indonesian jail, he wasn't planning on that particular risk. And then other parties said, Okay, once you've assessed that risk, you know, you can hire you can no one, you can partner with a big, big partner in Indonesia and Thailand, where I am. Or if you can work with a local person that can help you try to mitigate that risk. Or you can get a really big name shareholder in there, that's going to use their power to reduce that risk. But all of those things are also going to cost money. So again, reducing risk is, you know, is always going to, you know, reduce the return. The other thing I thought about was, yeah, I had one guy that I interviewed on the show, and he basically said I didn't, I didn't realize I was going to be chased out of the Congo with knives, you know, like, I didn't factor that into the model. So that whole environment. And then the other thing is that ultimately, when you go into these types of things, it consumes a lot of your personal energy. And you mentioned about, you know, it does consume a lot of energy. And when you're a one, you know, one, as you said, a one project company, if you are that energy, it's do or die. Now, this was a $10 million dollar project for a bigger company. It's a little different. So there's a lot of things I took away from that. Is there anything you would add to that?

Anthony Milewski 28:06
Yeah, I think I think especially as an investor, and I presume that most people here probably investing in equities across the ASX TSX. OTC, I think you have to ask, why am I even investing? Why am I doing this? And, of course, I love this and I invest in a lot of friends deals, and why are you doing it? I mean, I always benchmark this across putting your money in the s&p 500 and reinvesting the dividends? Because by the way, I mean, you know, how great would you return a bit over the same period of time. And, and let's not forget, most of these juniors are very illiquid, you can only get out when people let you get out. And so I think I think you should, you know, there's this kind of part of human nature about gambling, and, and this, oh, I'm going to make it rich, this is my one, you know, 100 grand is gonna be 3 million or whatever, you know, and that's fine. And it does happen. But I will tell you, and I've never done this empirically, but I will be willing to bet that if you took the average of any any particular whether it's mining, or cannabis or whatever, whatever the kind of sector as a whole, as you averaged out the return you took every day, and you average out the return. And then you went and looked at the s&p, and then you pick the same time window, like I think you probably would outperform the s&p. So I would just I would challenge everyone before you enter into any investment in this kind of smaller cap space to really ask yourself, why am I doing that? Do I need to do this? Is it prudent to do this? Should I instead just buy the s&p and I think a lot of times the answer is pass and go you know, something a little bit more. That makes sense.

Andrew Stotz 29:48
So based upon what you learned from this story, and what you continue to learn what one action would you recommend our listeners take, who are confronted with this type of investment, you know, what's one action that you recommend? 80 to avoid suffering the same fate?

Anthony Milewski 30:03
You know, I wouldn't be I would be skeptical. And I mean that in the way that I would be thoughtful is maybe a better way to go about investing in places where you don't know anything about that place. Yep. Yep. And, and make it and really feel comfortable with that management team that you really feel that they have an edge in that place. And if you don't buy something else, yeah, there's a lot there's a mining needs out there. And so I think it's really about, about why are you doing this and making sure you understand that because if you don't know the place, if you don't understand the place, you don't understand the risk you're taking, I think that's key, that's key to managing a portfolio. You know, and everyone has a couple of these names that they gamble on whatever they are, but you should still always understand or to the best of your ability to try to understand the risks that you're taking. Because, you know, it's not a binary rescue. If you take your $100,000 that you've saved and you buy the s&p, it's not going to zero. And if it goes to zero, the world just ended. And, you know, you reinvest that dividend, you get a 5% yield on it. Like that's, that's not bad. You invest in a junior oil and gas company or junior mining company or a junior weed company. A lot of them go to zero,

Andrew Stotz 31:20
you put it all down on seven.

Anthony Milewski 31:22
Yeah, this one's just really thinking about your risk profile, understanding it. And I oftentimes feel that retail investors don't do that enough. And they don't appreciate or maybe they just don't think that, hey, this could go effectively to zero, right? It doesn't go to zero, but management team raises capital 10 times and basically went to zero. So I think it's just being more thoughtful about that. And always consider the alternative always ask this one I challenge everyone always asked myself, Should I just buy the s&p, right? Or can be the NASDAQ or whatever, footsie whatever, you know, whatever? Should I do that? And try to frame it that way.

Andrew Stotz 31:58
Okay. And what's a resource you'd recommend for our listeners?

Anthony Milewski 32:08
Know, I actually, I think that this has really evolved as a place and it's, it's, it's pretty well utilized, but maybe underutilized. I think that you can create channels of information about your company or about a commodity, or, you know, you can pick people you like, I mean, some of the smartest Ray Dalio, right. I mean, I love this guy, I don't know him. But, you know, it's so interesting to listen to what he has to say and see his tweets. And so you can kind of select a group of individuals out there that you think are really interesting, and then follow that in a way that's easy to access. And I think that what it does is allow ideas and articles and bosses come into your Twitter feed, you may not otherwise know they exist. So I think creating a Twitter feed around investments, or around ideas or commodities is really important and a great way of actually thinking about your particular investments.

Andrew Stotz 33:08
Great advice, Twitter actually is such a handy one for that. And I know, my team and I were constantly sharing tweets into a Slack group, about our investment strategy, and we're just constantly any good tweet, we share it, and we look at it. And then if it's a very good tweet, we'll take a picture of it, and then use it in the research and say, here's this guy saying that, and this is interesting. Now, let's add something to that. So yeah, a lot of value in that. Last question, what is your number one goal for the next 12 months?

Anthony Milewski 33:41
Um, you know, I have some fitness goals. So, you know, tell us you try trying to do a triathlon, so I've never done one. And, you know, I'm not a strong swimmer. So I need to kind of get a coach and work on that. So, you know, one thing, one thing about COVID, which has been nice, I mean, not not everything is bad, it's just had to travel as much and so been able to kind of, you know, think about health and have more time to focus on those types of things.

Andrew Stotz 34:13
Yeah, it's been in Bangkok, basically, every single morning during COVID. I got out at 5am and went for a walk. And when they closed down the park, you know, the madness that was going on, you know, closing down the park, I just walked around the park, and I rode my bicycle, and I walked and I just thought, you know, I don't want to get caught up in sitting on a sofa and eating potato chips and you know, all that. So hats off to you and I'm sure you'll become a good swimmer over time. Well, listeners, there you have it. Another story of laws to keep you winning. If you haven't yet taken the risk reduction assessment, I challenge you to go to my worst investment ever.com right now and start building wealth the easy way by reducing risk. As we conclude, Anthony, I want to thank you again for joining our mission and on behalf of He starts Academy I hereby award you alumni status for turning your worst investment ever into your best teaching moment. Do you have any parting words for the audience?

Anthony Milewski 35:10
I really appreciate your time and it was great to chat. Yeah,

Andrew Stotz 35:14
we appreciate it too. And that's a wrap on another great story to help us create, grow and protect our wealth fellow risk takers today. We expanded our mission to help 1 million people reduce risk in their lives. This is your worst podcast host, Andrew Stotz saying, I'll see you on the upside.

 

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About the show & host, Andrew Stotz

Welcome to My Worst Investment Ever podcast hosted by Your Worst Podcast Host, Andrew Stotz, where you will hear stories of loss to keep you winning. In our community, we know that to win in investing you must take the risk, but to win big, you’ve got to reduce it.

Your Worst Podcast Host, Andrew Stotz, Ph.D., CFA, is also the CEO of A. Stotz Investment Research and A. Stotz Academy, which helps people create, grow, measure, and protect their wealth.

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