Ep785: Jusper Machogu – Africa Needs More Fossil Fuels Not Aid

Andrew Stotz 00:01
Hello fellow risk takers, and welcome to my worst investment ever stories of loss to keep you winning in our community. We know that to win an investing, you must take risk, but to win in investing, you've got to re Deuce it. Ladies and gentlemen, I'm on a mission to help 1 million people reduce risk in their lives. And I want to thank you for joining that mission today. Today, it's going to be a special episode because I recently met another man on a mission. And I asked him to come on this show to talk about his mission because I thought it was interesting. And it was a little bit different than the mainstream narrative. So let me tell you, this is your worst podcast host Andrew Stotz, from a Stotz Academy, and I'm here with featured guest, Jasper matovu. Jasper, are you ready to join the mission?

Jusper Machogu 00:55
Yeah, um,

Andrew Stotz 00:56
I think I think you got something to share. And so let me just introduce you to the audience. And Jasper is a farmer in rural Kenya, an agricultural engineer by profession and a fossil fuels for Africa. Advocate, tell us take a minute and tell us about the unique value that you are bringing to this wonderful world.

Jusper Machogu 01:21
So Africa is one of those regions that is very poor. At the same time, when you look at the economic development in Africa, like Africa is developing so slowly. And so I've been thinking about that for quite some time. And I think I have the answer to that, I've came to realize that we have been taking on these western dried, which is actually all about ensuring that Africa never develops because at the end of the day, we will be competing for resources. So what I'm good, what I'm bringing to the table is I'm saying fossil fuels for Africa, because the imagery industry is driving every other industry. And so minus reliable, affordable or cheap energy, there is no way Africa is going to develop. And so that's what I'm bringing to the table.

Andrew Stotz 02:18
So you call it fossil fuels for Africa? How long? Have you been talking about this? Is it something new something in the last couple of years? Or how long? Have you been talking about it?

Jusper Machogu 02:30
Yeah, I've been talking about it for I think, one and a half years now, or probably one and a half years, from the corona period. So it's a new thing. I never actually imagined that at some point in my life, I will be saying fossil fuel for Africa, because I was this climate. Let me use environmentalist. So I was this person who really cared about the environment and thought that we were humans who are a cancer on this planet, because of how we were polluting it, how we were impacting it, etc, etc. So I'm surprised that while I was chasing for conserving the environment and fighting against fossil fuels, I'm here saying fossil fuel for Africa. Yeah, it's crazy.

Andrew Stotz 03:26
Things change. It's the sign of a bright mind that you change your mind on what you think, you know, I can't help us just think back to when I grew up. I was born in 1965. And I grew up in the US, we had the, you know, we had the oil embargo and oil prices went through the roof in, in the 70s. And, you know, people went kind of nuts. Because that was a serious slowdown or impact on the economy, for sure. But you know, all my life, I had cheap oil. I had a motorcycle that I could ride my little moped from my little house where I, you know, live, I didn't have much money when I after I left my parents home, and I could drive my moped to a factory an hour away. And I worked in the factory on the production line, and I didn't spend that much on, you know, on the petrol in my, in my motorcycle, and then I had a car and got in my car and drove all the way across America to live in California. And everywhere I went, you know, I jumped in the car. And I think about all the I never experienced a blackout. I don't think in my whole life until I came to Thailand. And we had a little bit of blackouts, but not much Thailand has really managed their grid very well. And so when I hear what's going on in Africa, and I just think about that, and then having oil, kind of trying to stop people from getting fossil fuels or reducing fossil fuels. It seems you know, like It's preventing you from developing. And maybe you can tell us a little bit more about what's going to happen. In Africa. If you can't get the fossil fuels, you're needed to develop the way that you think things should develop.

Jusper Machogu 05:17
Said, but some of the largest financial organizations in the world are not supporting fossil fuels for development in Africa. Because like, if, if, if you check it out today, the IMF and World Bank are not supporting fossil fuel development in Africa. And when investors come to Africa want to develop fossil fuels, we have these paid environmental organizations and activists who are against that a good example is the East Africa, crude oil pipeline in Uganda, which environmentalist dragging behind like, we're not developing that because of a few paid people who are a minute to that project. So first out, when I say fossil fuels for Africa, I'm talking about energy. And energy is very essential. So at the moment, in Sub Saharan Africa, a big big region, about 90% of our energy needs are met, thanks to burning biomass. Biomass is just a fancy term for firewood, charcoal, cow dung crop residue, that's where we are getting our energy from, compared to the rest of the world, which gets about 80% of their energy from burning fossil fuels. And as much as people say, solar panels, and wind turbines, so they don't realize that that's just electricity and electricity, just a tiny percentage, about a 10% of the total world. Energy consumption 18%. So the rest is just energy in other forms. We have heating, powering tractors, it, etc. So we need fossil fuels for the energy part, live alone, live live alone, the electricity part first. And that energy is how because like, if you want it to touch every other African today, you realize that about 60 70% of our population depends on agriculture for livelihood. So one of the easiest ways for us to touch each, each and every other person of most people, six out of 10, or seven out of 10 is by improving agriculture. How are we going to improve agriculture by having abundant reliable energy rates? Now, if you came to Africa, you're going to realize that or if you read papers, you're going to realize that about 4%, of in Africa from mechanization is at 4%. So out of every other thing that we do for machines, solve 4% of that, if you went to the US about 95%. So that's a very big number. Yeah. So and there is no way we're going to electrify tractors of our machines. There is no way we're going to do that as much as these green environmental organizations say that. Yeah, so first, I'm saying for machines, I, okay, so we have steel. Without steel, you can't have farm machines. And so I'm saying, let's have fossil fuels, fossil fuels to give us the energy to power farm machines, so that we can now stop using depending on our muscle to produce food. They like a farm machine. A good example is the combine harvester combined harvester can replace up to 1000 people. Yeah, so. So it's all machines. So

Andrew Stotz 08:58
That's great. That's a great place to start. Because I know, a lot like in Thailand, when I spend time in the rural areas, you know, we, when I first came to Thailand, it was mainly buffalo that people were they were tilling with Buffalo and then planting and then maybe they could get some minimal machinery in there. But nowadays, there's people with the machinery that can then come to the farm and how with you know, go through and harvesting and go through and planting and go through and you know, all of the soil prep and all of that, but that's that you're not at that stage in in Africa right now. Because as you said 4% of people are 4% of the farming is mechanized using farm machines. Yes.

Jusper Machogu 09:43
Okay. And so, yeah, and one one thing I just remembered, so back in 1800, a farmer in the US so, farm labor, if, say you are producing a kilo of wheat You'd spend about 10 minutes to produce one kilo of wheat in your farm today, in the same us, a farmer is going to use maybe two seconds to produce the same amount of wheat one kilo. So thanks to farm mechanization Time Machine solve all of that. They don't tire. And so number two, I'm saying let's have fertilizer. Actually, fertilizer should be number one, because like once we start using fertilizer, nitrogenous fertilizer we're going to solve, we're going to produce more food. That's one of the easiest, easiest ways to improve livelihoods and economic development in Africa. So at the moment, you realize that on average, actually, right now, today, I was listening to this African summit on fertilizer and soil conservation, stuff like that, but it's mainly fertilizer. And it's a very interesting conference, only that we have a lot of crap. Sorry about that. being discussed, people are talking about soil health, microorganisms and stuff like that, when it's so simple, what we need is fertilizer. And we have lots of fossil fuels in Africa to produce the fertilizer that we need. So today, on average, one hectare of land in Africa is using about 16 to 20 kilos of fertilizer, nitrogenous fertilizer. And that finally, if you went to a place like the US, they using about 120 kilos of fertilizer, perhaps, if you went to Europe, about 160, if you went to India, 250, go to China. 360 kilos of nitrogenous fertilizer, perhaps Yeah, that's a big, big number. And that correlates very well with the production of on a hectare of land. So today, we are producing two tonnes of corn that maize perhaps the US is producing 12 tonnes, two tonnes, the two tonnes that we are producing today is what the US was producing back in 1800 to 1900. So that's a very big difference in it. And most of that is from other things, fossil fuel, agrochemicals, let's say pesticides, herbicides, and stuff like that. But most of it is thanks to the use of nitrogenous fertilizers. So

Andrew Stotz 12:22
let's talk about fertilizer. What is the nitrogen is the main one, I believe the other ones what phosphorus and I can't remember what NKP thought

Jusper Machogu 12:31
and NPK NPK, nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium, potassium or nitrogen? Yes, nitrogen is like one of the most important and of course, the P and K, but nitrogen the most important. So what we're using today is compost manual, or manual. That's what most people are using no cow dung. And you realize that cow dung has got a very low nitrogenous content about about 4%. Actually, it can go past it can't go past four percentage usually below that. And when people say let's use, let's say with straw that has gone up nitrogen percent of less than 1%. You can't replace you can't compete with let's say you raise your raise gotten from fossil fuels. So that's neat. Let's say methane, you make methane with hydrogen hydrogen from sorry, so you make methane for the end. Sorry about that. So anyway, I'm

Andrew Stotz 13:34
buying hydrogen. Let's look at that, the way the way of making ammonia which is the

Jusper Machogu 13:39
beginning of ammonia is this ammonia drip hydrogen

Andrew Stotz 13:42
from natural gas using steam which is produced producing co2 as a byproduct and then combine that hydrogen with nitrogen from the air at a high pressure and temperatures of hundreds of degrees Celsius. So, ultimately, the the source is natural gas then

Jusper Machogu 14:03
actually this was, so the source is natural gas and at the same time, what powers that particular reaction is nitrogen is methane gas, sorry. So you realize that we need fossil fuels to produce the ammonium nitrate, let's say or urea. And that urea has got a very high has got a very high nitrogen has content of about 46%. So compare that 4% versus 46%. You realize that we need about 100 kilos of urea to provide the same amount of nitrogen content in a hectare of land that can't compete with let's say 10 to 30 tonnes of compost Well, the compost manual 10 tonnes versus 100 kilos. That's a very big difference. And so That's what I'm saying. Okay, number two, one of the another easiest way to improve agriculture is fertilizer. And

Andrew Stotz 15:07
just want one last thing. I mean, I remember when, when the Ukraine War started off, it seemed to me like countries in, in, in Northern Africa as well like Egypt as an example. But also in Africa in general that were sourcing, natural gas and the like, also wheat that they were sourcing in Egypt, for instance, for some of their staple meals, all of a sudden, those supplies either got very limited, or the price just went up and it was scarce. But my question to you is, where does Africa or specifically Kenya, have a source for natural gas? Or is it an imported item that really needs to be imported at the volume that you need to be more productive?

Jusper Machogu 15:53
So today, today, Africa doesn't have much fertilizer production going on? We actually import our fertilizer from the meeting. Is it sad because we have lots of LNG in Africa, we have LNG in Nigeria, we have LNG in Uganda, like we have. I don't know why we have to get fertilizer from the Middle East when we can produce our own fertilizer, actually, today. So the P, the NPK, that you're talking about. For the phosphate truck, we have about 60% of the phosphate truck in Morocco, Morocco is in Africa. And we importing, we exporting most of that to these other countries, that Western countries, but we can't use the phosphate truck to produce our own food. So we consuming so little of that beats me. So number three, number three is irrigation. As you know, one of the lake one of the largest deserts in the world is in Africa. So the Sahara Desert. Yeah, and we can go for seasons without rain. So, but that's easily solvable. We can drill boreholes, we can desalinate ocean water. A good example is Somalia, Somalia is just nearby the Indian Ocean, but you realize that Somalia is mostly starving. We have many hungry people in Somalia. And we all wonder why they saying we didn't have rains last year. And we have why can they disseminate ocean water and irrigate their lands? It's so easy. It's so simple. But yeah, the other day Museveni, the president of Uganda was saying he has been trying to get funding for irrigation in his country, and he can't get that. But if he wanted people, if you wanted a conference, let's say to discuss food production, of course, he's going to get funding for that, but no, for irrigation. So yeah, you get the drill. So once we have abundant food, once we have abundant food, we are going to use, we are going to add value to that. So there was a report, I think back in 2016, or 2017. It was about cocoa production in Ghana and these southern countries, so the South African countries. And so they were saying that, sorry, Western Africa countries, so Ghana cocoa from Ghana, and these other African countries, so they were exporting. So what happens is, we found the cocoa. We have companies from the European buying the cocoa, the rose the cocoa, and have now have chocolate and chocolate sells very well. And you realize that at the end of the day, they make let's say 100 billion profit as profit. Now we're talking about profit 100 billion, that was the figure 4 billion of now. So 100 minus 4 billion, 4 billion is what goes to the African farmers. 96 billion goes to this Western corporations. So it's just roasting. The same happens for coffee we can What's so hard about roasting coffee, it just needs a source of fire and that is literally it. So that's going to create once we start adding value to the food that we produce, we are going to employ our people at the same time. We're going to add more from them Whatever we're going to produce. So, therefore, are one of the easiest ways for us to improve on agriculture and improve on six out of 10 to seven out of 10. Africans. And so when I say fossil fuels for Africa, I say that that bit is for agriculture, mostly. But I'm also saying that because we need the four pillars of modern civilization, so I say fertilizer, we really need that. And we can't have that man as fossil fuels. We can't have cement minus fossil fuels. We can't have steel minus fossil fuels, and we can't have plastic man as fossil fuels. So yeah, fossil fuel for Africa.

Andrew Stotz 20:38
And, okay, so we that's a good overview of, you know, that Africa needs, you know, what African needs for abundant food is farm machinery, fertilizer, irrigation, irrigation. Now, what is the force that stopping that? Like, for some people that don't know anything about this? They may be saying, so why can't you just get it? What is the force that's acting against that? Can you describe who it is, what it is? What country? What group? What, who is this? That's trying to deprive Africa, let's say from those core elements.

Jusper Machogu 21:17
So recently, I had a conversation with somebody who reached out on Twitter, and we were discussing, so I did an article with one of my friends. And it was mostly on fertilizer for fertilizer access for Africans. And so he touched on so he texted me on Twitter, and then we got to email a little bit. And then he was asking, like, why are you saying, fertilizer subsidies. And so we got, like, we had a Zoom meeting for about one hour. And we were discussing, so I tried explaining myself to this person. But at the end of the day was like, once we have a little subsidies, I know, that's what most cartoonists that's their stand. But so I'm gonna just say this, this is just my opinion. So most people say, once we have fertilizer subsidies, let's say in Kenya, that's going to affect the market prices. And so my question is, so we have a country we have people want to feed themselves. And the government's is one of the easiest ways is for each to do that is, let's say, the tax, let's say alcohol, or some other products, and then they put that to, let's say, solving hunger, because once we have abundant fertilizer, we're going to solve hunger, and of course, improve economic, improve our economies. And now somebody thinks that, because the government of Kenya has done that, somebody, so Germany, let's say so because we buying the fertilizer from the Middle East, be competing with let's say, the the Germany, we're competing with France, we're competing with the UK, this country, these are countries that are far richer than Africans. So of course, there is no way we're going to compete with them. Fairly. These are rich people. So when I say this, my thinking is like, fertilizer subsidies are good thing. And anyway, so last year, last year, our government, the government of Kenya ended fertilizer subsidies for chilies and fuel subsidies, the new government, and after that, what happened is we had increased hunger cases, because now people can't feed themselves and or if you are producing food to pay for school food, you sell the food and then you pay school fees. Now, you are producing so little because you use toilet and fertilizer. fertilizer prices went up almost two times. So if you are using 10 kilos initially, now you can you are affording, let's say five kilos, and that means less production. That means less less, less production from your farm. You get the drill at the end of the day, you making so little or maybe you're going to starve or maybe you can't afford to provide your family with basic needs, clothing, food, education, stuff like that. And that impacts us negatively. I don't like that, because that's the IMF and World Bank wide sharing our government for doing that. Actually, they forced the government to do that. And they've been doing that for a very long time. So they, the former government said no, I've been saying no to the IMF and World Bank and things, saying let's end fertilizer subsidies, but these are the government is very corrupt, it's bribable, you give them a few billions, they can lose that the the top individual, they lose that they put that in their pockets. And they say, Are we ending for today? subsidies? That's good for our economy. It's not good for economies.

Andrew Stotz 25:18
Yeah. So let me ask you a question. You know, if you look at China, as you mentioned about fertilizer, and nitrogen, China, just, you know, when they realize that they need to really up their production to feed the mass of people in the country. Now, the difference maybe could be that China is a country versus Africa is a continent with many countries that have different policies. But so, you know, nobody stopped them. And they don't have the resources, natural gas, they have to import all natural, almost all natural gas and oil into China. Why is it that China could do that and still maintains a very high level of fertilizer, in their agricultural production, and they're very productive with their agricultural production? And, and Africa doesn't or you know, pick a country in Africa doesn't or can't.

Jusper Machogu 26:10
Okay, so, I don't know. Have you read a book called titled? Something the economic hitman

Andrew Stotz 26:20
Confessions of an economic hitman? Yes, yeah. The guy who IMF and I was in 1997, when we had the bot crisis in Thailand, the IMF came in, and I could see some of what he was talking about in that book of the way that they, you know, they came in with a very heavy hand, for sure. But anyways, go ahead. Yeah.

Jusper Machogu 26:41
Yeah, so we have lots of economic hitmen in Africa. And the sad thing about Africa is that we are divided by the boundaries that were made by people wanting to colonize us. So that alone kills us because now divided people is so easy to conquer. We can say no, okay, Kenya couldn't say no, Uganda is going to say yes to the economic hitmen. So that's what's happening. And even right now, look at what the UN is doing. The UN has got its 17, sustainable development goals for 17. Top problems that we have in Africa, and he thought that one of those problems, the UN says is climate change. And so when they say sustainable, sustainable bit in the Sustainable Development Goals, just means that if in every other solution, like if we're going to solve hunger, we're going to do it sustainably, just meaning we make sure that we conserve the environment. That's what it literally means. So if we're going to ensure that people have access to clean water sustainably, every other problem sustainably, climate change, and climate change just means. So what the UN is saying right now, climate change is caused by the how US burning fossil fuels. And so you see where that goes. So it's, we can't use fossil fuels. Because as much as we want to sort of our top problems, we shouldn't, we shouldn't use fossil fuels, because that's going to impact the climate or that's going to cause climate change. So the IMF is one of the biggest like economic hit. Hit organization, Hitman hitman in Africa. Yeah. And so when you look at it, so we have African countries, pledging to this net zero by 20 to 2015, China and India are saying we are going to continue burning coal until 2016. That's what they think. And until then, yeah, you can't stop as they are saying that.

Andrew Stotz 28:58
But Africa is not an Africa doesn't have a unified voice. Number one is part of that. As you've said, I was talking to one of my students who lives in South Africa. And he was telling me that they're just experiencing more and more blackouts because Germany's has a lot of pressure on the South African government to shut down coal mines. And the result of that is now they're getting intermittent electricity. And so, you know, we've talked about IMF, we talked about World Bank, we've talked about un you know, if you look at the UN Sustainable Development Goals, it's almost a joke when you look at it, because the contradictions in that make your mind blow your mind. You either gotta be absolutely blind, or maybe not smart enough to figure it out. But if you're one of your goals is to eliminate poverty. The most critical thing for eliminating poverty is food and energy. And food is produced. Through the use of energy and fertilizer, as you say, and so there's just a tremendous contradiction. But the contradiction doesn't matter so much if you're living in a rich country that's already enjoying the benefits of all of that. And but the contradictions, really, I think what part of what you're talking about is the contradictions hit home. And all of a sudden, you're boxed in where you need to produce more, but you're not going to be able to get the resources to do that. And you're stuck in this, you know, all of a sudden, wait a minute, what's happening with us, is another factor. Yeah,

Jusper Machogu 30:34
yeah. Yeah. So last year, we had a national tree planting day that the government announced in like, three days, so it was like on a Thursday, and the government just said, next week on Monday, we're going to have a national tree planting day, nothing is going to go on like, no jobs, no work. You just stay home planted trees, we're going to provide you

Andrew Stotz 30:57
seedlings or seeds. Yes.

Jusper Machogu 30:59
And that's what happened. So. So just today, I learned that next week, next week, actually, I think it's tomorrow. So tomorrow is supposed to have a national tree planting day tend to the IMF and World Bank. The IMF says like, if you want a loan from us, of course, you're going to have a national tree planting day. And the government can say no, because they need the funds. So yeah, that's happening. That's happening. Yeah. Oh, and by the way, back in 2020, or 2021. Did you see what happened in Sri Lanka, because the government is the IMF. Yep. And they say that, we're going to end we are going to end the use of nitrogenous fertilizer going to go the organic way how our forefathers used to live. So once they did that, what happened? The government was just overthrown in a few days because the country was in kills, getting starved? Yes.

Andrew Stotz 32:08
For those people that let's let's step back and say for those people that didn't watch that, basically what happened was, for some unknown reason, but maybe from pressure, very smart, and Sri Lankan leaders are actually quite smart. I'm pretty impressed. I've been there. And I know I have a lot of friends. And my former boss was from Sri Lanka, and just absolutely impressed with his intellect. So but I know, they're also very deeply involved with IMF and World Bank individually, and they work there. So someone came up with the idea that, hey, let's go and you know, get rid of nitrogen and fertilizer in general, let's say, nitrogen specifically. And all of a sudden, their crop production absolutely collapsed. And very soon after that, their currency started collapsing. And when their currency started collapsing, because they weren't able to export and earn any income, all of a sudden, any, any thing that they wanted to buy outside and traveling, because a very small country, it's not like they're manufacturing a lot. Everything became expensive, all the medicines and all that became massively expensive. And then there was a massive uprising, and within days, they toppled the government and had to rethink that policy. So that's a little background on Sri Lanka. But how does that relate to what you're seeing happening in Africa?

Jusper Machogu 33:25
So the same IMF is the same, the same IMF that pushed Sri Lanka to that to start being and it is the same I remember pushing the Government of Kenya and other African countries to end fertilizer and fuel subsidies, the same IMF, the economic hit one another economic hitman.

Andrew Stotz 33:46
And, you know, there's one other factor that I want to touch on just because I don't really know much about Africa, I don't know much about the history. And I actually am looking forward to getting to Africa this year. And I haven't set my plans yet but I look forward to having a cup of coffee together. But the thing that some people may say, well, it's not about fuels, it's just Africans are not ambitious, like the Chinese maybe, you know, the Chinese are. I mean, when I go to China, my Chinese friends to me, I think I'm pretty good in business. I'm doing pretty well I got all this and they're like looking at me like you're so slow, Andrew, you're so slow, like what? It takes you three years to do this. And we do it in you know, three weeks, and I just feel like such a slow businessman. But one of my questions for you is what about the psyche of Africa or the countries are they ambitious? Are they if they can get this nitrogen they're ready to move or is there other factors that are inherent in Africa that I just don't know?

Jusper Machogu 34:49
So the worst poker so much and in Africa they forgot about China because China they thought China doesn't have much, let's say mineral resources. China doesn't have its own oil, it does have coal. But coal is plenty in Germany, these other countries, so they really didn't focus much on China. So they put their focus on Africa, because Africa has got this like, immense amount of mineral resources. Now, China, also has been like, fighting so hard against the Western organizations or Western governments that want to colonize them. And now you can today you can see there was the war. They say the cheap was manufacturing was between the western countries and China. I really like the Chinese approach their policies, like they don't care, the all they care about is human flourishing. So Africa, as much as we want to develop, I know every other youth from my community wants to flourish, they want a beautiful house, they want to drive a car in future, they want better education, better, better clothing, better phones, etc, etc. We want to have access to electricity, clean water, laundry machines, all of the good stuff. We want that but even when we elect a corrupt politicians, let's say we, let's say a president, when we elect a good president or president who thinks or who puts our needs, at the top, the worst is going to find a way to get that person out. Sabotage, yes, subverted. If they can't pay the leader, the person, they're going to find other ways. So

Andrew Stotz 36:57
yeah, so that. That is one thing that I found that was really kind of shocking is that, you know, growing up in America, I thought that America really was out there in the world, to promote democracy. And, you know, it didn't take long and a bit of reading of history and understanding the people behind the scenes realizing, I'm not convinced America has any interest in democracy around the world. I just don't think that that's, that is not the goal. But I want to I have a, I want to wrap up in just a few minutes. But I want to I have a theory that I presented to my clients, about a year or so ago, my clients, let's say, are fund managers and investors in Thailand, professional institutional investors, and I, I write research that I tried to look ahead to say, what's going to happen and what should you own. And about a year and a half ago, I produced a report, and I said that we are in the middle of World War 2.5. And, and this, they, they knew that the Russian invasion or the annexation that's happening in Ukraine, that that was going on, so they could see that there's a war. So I asked them, Who It's America against who? And this is my question. And for the listeners and the viewers think, World War 2.5 Is America against who? Well, the first question is, well, is it America against Russia? And I said, No, I don't think America doesn't really all America wants ultimately from Russia is access to oil and gas and minerals, and uranium and all of that. But from an economic perspective, Russia is not a threat. Maybe from a nuclear perspective, yes. But still, I think Americans don't see that. So then that next next one, they said, Well, is it America against China? And I said, No. So I said, The World War 2.5 is actually finished. It's over an America one. Who did they fight Europe. And America just dominated Europe. Not one European leader is able to stand up to America net, America now absolutely controls NATO, and has now gotten as many European countries into NATO as it possibly can. America has, basically, economically has dominated Europe and crushed Germany, because if you look at the flow of oil and gas into Europe, it's all come from the heart of the Russian oil and gas fields. And when they blew up the pipeline, the Nord Stream pipelines, basically, that was the end, and they disconnected Europe from their cheap energy source and its main energy source. And so America on many sides, politically, militarily, economically, has now dominated Europe. So now the question is, why did they need to do that? And again, this is all my theory, right? Why do they need to do that? Because America's going to war with China and They're, they're marching down that path already. And the problem is that Africa doesn't want a world war between America and China. India doesn't want a war between, you know, US and China, nobody really wants that. But if they can get a hold of the Europeans and get them to also now disengage from China, and see China's enemy, now they have all the economic and political power that exists in this world, let's say 90% of it is concentrated in US and Europe. And they can then force this war world war three, on the rest of the world. That was my theory. But there's a last part of the theory. And I asked them, I asked my clients, where do you think World War Three is going to happen? And my clients said, well, Taiwan. I said, No. Africa. You see, America has neglected Africa for many, many years, they didn't have much to pay attention to with Africa, I would say Europe paid more attention to Africa than America did over the last 20 or 30 years. But it's a little bit like, I had a lady that I once was considering dating. And she said to me that she said, I said, Are you separated or divorced or what she said, Yeah, I'm separated. But you know, my husband's got another family and you don't have to worry about it, we can date I said, I said, the minute your husband sees you with another guy, he gonna care. And I think that's what's going to happen with America, they're going to see and they are seeing that China has dominated, all of the resources are now going to China for refining and all of that. And China has made relationships in Africa way beyond where America is. And that's where I think the sticking point, maybe it's not going to be a physical war in Africa. But the confrontation over resources is probably going to happen there. So anyways, that's a long winded description of my, my thing that I told my clients, but what do you think makes sense of that? And what do you think that doesn't make sense of that I'd love to hear.

Jusper Machogu 42:12
So it's a good curry. That I agree with mostly. So I like Russia, because Russia has been all about Africa developing the some other time give us free fertilizer, it's a good thing when you care. So the EU, the UN and the Western, these western organizations, the West gives us aid. And D, at the end of the day, they take most of that aid. So they use that to live in their big, big hotels, they fly in they're big, into beautiful aeroplanes, etc, etc. So most of that goes still back into their pockets. With Russia, Russia cares about solving hunger in a different way. So they're giving us fertilizer, nitrogen as fertilizer, because they have lots of that, and they produce it very cheaply. So same thing with China, China is ensuring that Africa develops the building railway railways, in Africa, the building the ports, roads, etc, buildings, etc, etc. And now, that makes the US mad, because what they have been doing is ensuring that African oven develops, China and Russia are here, they trying to ensure that Africa develops because China wants Africa to develop so that they can sell as their products, they're producing plenty of that. And in future, if all doesn't go well with these European countries where they export most of their products to they will want to have another like another market. I think at the end of the day, the US doesn't the US wants to be a superpower number one is the US versus every other person, every other country that so if we are poor, if we are not united the US can control as they want to control our resources, etc, etc. So yeah, that I think that it's

Andrew Stotz 44:33
I want to wrap up by letting you just, you know, summarize the message that you're trying to get out to people so that everybody understands it. And I also want to tell everybody that you can find fine Jasper on Twitter, and it's the handle is at JUSPRMACHOG You, you can also find them on substack I'm gonna have the links to both of those in the show notes, so you can click on it, and go there and have a debate and a discussion. So over to you to close it out.

Jusper Machogu 45:09
Okay, so I'm all about economic development in Africa want Africans to have what the rest of the world has, I want Africa to be able to feed itself, I want Africa to have access to reliable, abundant energy. I want Africa to have lots of food for, you know, economic development. So at the end of the day, you realize that we need lots of fossil fuels, and we have plenty of that we don't need much aid. What we need is investors in Africa, Let's drill our oil, let's tap into our natural gas. Let's mined our coal. Let's use that to develop ourselves. That's literally it. So that's what I'm saying fossil fuels for Africa.

Andrew Stotz 45:52
Fantastic. Well, I really appreciate you coming on. I think for the listeners and the viewers out there. It's a little different from what I normally do, but I felt like your message is in and all that is an interesting message. And it's also a counter message than what we're normally hearing. Part of being a great analyst in my case is that you've got to listen to all sides of the story. So I want to thank you for this great discussions. And again, listeners. You can go to Twitter, you can go to the blog that I have that you can click through on this episode. And you can connect with Jasper and learn more and support him in you know what he's trying to do. This is your worst podcast host Andrew Stotz saying, I'll see you on the upside.