Ep695: Jack Farley – Don’t Play in Markets You Don’t Know

Andrew Stotz 00:02
Hello fellow risk takers and welcome to my worst investment ever stories of loss to keep you winning in our community we know that to win in investing you must take risk but to win big you've got to reduce it. Ladies and gentlemen, I'm on a mission to help 1 million people reduce risk in their lives to join me go to my worst investment ever.com and sign up for our free weekly become a better investor newsletter, where I share how to reduce risks and create grow and protect our wealth. Fellow risk takers this is your worst podcast host Andrew Stotz from East Dance Academy and I'm here with featured guests. Jack Farley. Jack, are you ready to join the mission?

Jack Farley 00:42
I am so ready. How can I not be after that fantastic intro.

Andrew Stotz 00:47
We are going to help a million people now. Let's get you and how you're helping people out to the world here. So let me just introduce you to the audience. Jack is the host of forward guidance podcasts, a podcast I listen to regularly, he is interested in all things liquidity macro and central banking. Jack graduated from Brown University with a degree in economics it has done nearly 500 long form interviews on investing and macro economics. You can find them on Twitter at Jack Farley 96, which I'll have a link to that and all other items in the show notes. Jack, take a minute and tell us about the unique value that you are bringing to this wonderful world.

Jack Farley 01:31
Well, thank you, Andrew, for that very kind introduction. I'd so the term unique. I just start by saying that what you and I do is very rare. There aren't a lot of people doing it. Yes, everyone knows that the podcasting world is you know, there's an oversaturation. Everyone wants to have a comedy podcast where just a couple of brands talking about sports, but like actually doing interviews about finance? Yes, there are a lot but there aren't as many people who do it as you know, prolifically as a full time gig. So I sort of view it as just go or the COC where there's no competition. Like if I wanted to be a shortstop for the New York Yankees, if I wanted to be in the top 100. You know, you're competing against so many people. But if you're, you know, want to be excel in a field where it's very niche, and you're not competing against that many people, your odds of success are a lot a lot higher, I'd say in terms of what I tried to bring to the podcast, that's unique is I'm not an expert. I haven't worked in the financial markets for real as a trader, but I'm attempting to understand it on a level that I think is typically like a little more than what you'd see on the news casting. And I think that what's great about podcasting is it allows you to go in depth. And yeah, I do, I do a lot of episodes like you.

Andrew Stotz 02:57
You know, it's kind of interesting for the listeners out there, let's maybe we talk behind the scenes a little bit, because I am, I'm a kind of, I do my podcast as a very small part of my week, I batch all my interviews in a short period of time, I'm boom, boom, boom, and then it's done. And my type of interviews are not the type where I have to do a huge amount of prep, get myself ready. And then they're not long, long form. I mean, sometimes we can go on for long, but generally, I've kind of designed it that way. Because I've got a lot of other things that I'm doing in my life, but I feel like what you're doing is a lot more dedicated. And it'll just be interesting. So the audience kind of heard how I do it there. And I'm just curious if you could explain, like, what's the background of how where does this podcast, you know, for guidance fit into your life? And how do you do it?

Jack Farley 03:48
i It's a full time job. And I'm thinking about it. Very frequently, I'd say I'm in but I just do the same thing that you do. But you have this whole other life. And I don't know, I don't know how you do it. I mean, I can do three interviews in a day for any reason day, but it really takes it out of me. And I feel like a 20 minute interview is very tough. If you if it's if it's going well, you know it? I don't know, I'm sure you've done all these fantastic interviews that are 20 minutes. I don't know how you press stop, you know, tough and, you know, some podcasters do three, four or five hours. I mean, I've seen interviews about you know, Bitcoin and like crypto is enormously complicated, but Bitcoin itself the technology, very complicated, but the idea of Bitcoin as money. It's, it's, you know, it's a five minute conversation. It's like they're 21 million of them. But you know, that's the end of the conversation. But I've seen people do like five hour interviews about Bitcoin as money and it's like, there's an audience for that. And you know, there's an audience for a 90 minute interview about the plumbing of Federal Reserve System and the financial system. So yeah,

Andrew Stotz 04:54
if somebody's listening in their thing, I want to do what you're doing. Well, it'd be your end I kind of when you go back to the beginning, the mistakes you made the different things that you know, that work that didn't work. I'm just curious, just because, you know, I'm listening to your podcasts over here in beautiful Bangkok, Thailand. And you know, it's, you know, and then I listen, I'm talking to you, and I'm hearing all the commitment that you've gotten to that. But I'm just curious, like, what advice would you give someone who's, you know, serious about doing it?

Jack Farley 05:25
Well, let's see, I don't want to give like too good advice. And then I create a monster. Yeah. But um, let's see, I'd say you have to start somewhere where you, you get a little bit of buzz, a little bit of people glomming on like, you don't want to start with an audience of one, because then you double your viewership, you will have two viewers. And then if you double it, again, you have four viewers. So you know, so you want to start with a pretty big bang, I think having if you're someone who worked in media before, and you have a little bit of following that can be great. The previous company that I worked at, is facing a lot of opportunities to do on camera interviews, and I'm using those skills in the show today, my pocket for guidance is video as well as audio. And, yeah, I think it can really help to start from having done having done a lot of a lot of them before, I'd say it can be really tough for someone to sort of have a full time job and then launch this on the side, I think, I mean, you've done that, but you're, you're in the financial world. So that was your, you know, your way to get into it. And I Lastly, say like, don't do it, unless you'd love it, because it's going to become the work that you're gonna have to do is going to become real work as an unpleasant work very soon if you don't love it.

Andrew Stotz 06:52
And one other question is, you know, how do you how should someone think about monetizing, I look at myself and I, because it was kind of a sideline thing. And actually, I started, you know, at a time where I felt like, I really need to reach out more, I'm kind of stuck in my office, I'm an analyst, I just dig down deep and I do my work. And I saw it as a way of kind of forcing myself to get out and talk. I knew I know, I have the skills there. But if I don't force myself and have some kind of structured way of doing it. And so I saw it like that. And I saw the value of building my relationships. And I didn't have a clear monetization path. And sometimes I regret that because I think that my podcast isn't aligned with any particular product. Like I look at Amy Porterfield. She has online courses. She has a podcast. I like what she does, I attended her courses. And it's like, perfect alignment. She does an episode, it's exactly about what you want to know if you're going to do an online course. And then you go to a website, you get the materials that she provides related to that episode. And then she says, Okay, why not take the online course. So there's like this perfect alignment that I never got. And now I you know, I see the pros and cons and it but I'm curious, like, how should a beginner think about monetization or that type of thing?

Jack Farley 08:11
So the first question, first thing I say is, if you're truly beginner, don't think about monetization, because you're not going to make any money. Because if you're beginner, you don't have that many viewers, and it's not gonna be worth that much anyway, I don't think I'm at the point really, where monetization should be what I'm thinking about the most, because I feel like if I focus a lot on content, now I can grow it so much more. And then in the future, so you're your finance guy, like your valuable work, I am thinking about it a lot. And you will I guess you want to have sponsors who are aligned with your products where your audience is interested in their products. And also that they recognize the value of the podcast. I mean, you know this that it can be sometimes difficult for people to track. How time, like if you if let's say, I have a TV show, and Swiffer, you know, swept the mob runs an ad and can say, Oh, 40,000 people watch this for some time, like the people who are paying all this money for the TV bad. They just accept that. Whereas if they sponsor on your show, and you know, 100,000 people don't listen to it. For some reason, they specifically were like, well, how do we know how, how many people bought it like she knew a code so they want attribution, which can be very difficult, but end of the story. Podcasting is the future. I'm super bullish on podcasting, and I'm pretty bearish on TV and legacy media. I think excellent work is being done there. But it's like, where's the growth you know, and you got to go that's what the essays go where the growth is like, if you go to you know, if you're going to work at an industry that is like, slowly dying and decaying mean, like expect that know that that's the industry that you're going into don't expect, like, Oh my God, how come like they're not paying for my dinner? It's like, because the industry itself is dying, you know? Yeah, it's

Andrew Stotz 10:10
a good it's a good.

Jack Farley 10:11
What was it was about sponsors positive and monetization? Yeah, I feel like that's one model of the chorus model where, okay, I'm Jack Farley and people is listen to my show. And the sponsor is me because I have all these courses. That's good. But I feel like it's a recipe for a good podcast, but not a great podcast, I feel like because you're not the goal is to just make as much money as possible for you, you're like, you're not doing pursuing the Absolute Truth actually feel like pretty well about that. Like, I feel like the Yeah, you should use like, you should be making the best content possible and then stop sponsored monetization should be second, and like, people will pay me even more because we get even more views because the content is so good. You know, if people can tell the difference between Oh, this is actually, okay, oh, this is good content. And I actually I like this, I'm learning. It's hitting all the buttons, you know, the emotional buttons about the Fed's balance sheet, blah, blah, blah. And people can tell between something that's just hitting the buttons and something that's, that's really good. And their long term, the stuff that's really good is going to grow the best.

Andrew Stotz 11:24
Yeah, I mean, when I listen to your podcast, I get the feeling like like, you've got a list of questions you want to learn, you want to get information from this person, and try to, you know, understand it, which brings me before we get into the big question of my podcasts, I'd like to just, you know, you've done so many different interviews on banking system, and, particularly, you know, US banks in what's going on there. I have a portfolio allocations I do for clients here. And we made a small allocation to banks, a global bank ETF, because some signals were turning a little bit positive. And then a week later, Silicon Valley Bank goes boom. And it went down, that portfolio, the ETF went down a bit right from the beginning, it bounced back a bit, and then it started to go down. And you know, it's concentrated in large banks. So they're actually gaining probably from it. But having been a bank analysts and knowing from my own perspective, that I don't want to be in something that's a small part of the portfolio, that I got to sit there and defend for the next, you know, six months. And so I decided to exit that position and just watch it unfold. But I'm just curious, from all the different interviews that you've done, what is your perspective on kind of where we're at with this banking situation in the US? Is it a crisis that's going to unfold and explode? Or is it a small, you know, impact that's been dealt with? And we'll move on from that.

Jack Farley 12:57
It's funny, everyone who's at a different part with different interests, that uses a different word to describe it. So if you're in the media, and you want to generate buzz and clicks, you say it's crisis threat, and I'm in the media, I call it crisis. I think I'll agree it is a crisis. But if you're in the bank industry, you say, it's just a little bit of stress.

Andrew Stotz 13:18
Everybody calm down tremor.

Jack Farley 13:20
Is it? Yeah, so like, if someone's interviewed the Bank of America, they're like, it's a tremor. It's not it's not even, it's not even that it's almost a stress. Um, so before I answer your question, I will I want to say that I think the guru business model is like steroids. In that short term, you can have a lot of success, but long term, you're doomed to have some consequences. So yeah, I'm not a guru. I don't make predictions. I have views about individual stocks and stock market banks bonds, and you'll rarely hear me say that on the show, just because it's not even for a noble reason. It's just there's no benefit to me making a decision. Because if in terms of like, what I gain, if I'm right, people recognize that it's like plus one, but if I'm wrong, it's minus. There's nothing, there's just a total asymmetric payoff. So we're just

Andrew Stotz 14:09
tapping into your learning, we're not tapping into your predictions. But that makes sense. I understand that.

Jack Farley 14:15
Yeah. And you get it like I can tell you're, you're really humble guy, you know, despite all the experience that you have. I, let's see, I don't know. I mean, it's just been a really interesting time. I feel like, I've learned so much more about the banking sector during this episode, and there's no way I would have been, you know, kicking the tires on these banks and learning about, like, you know, economic value of equity. Unless there was a crisis, you know, what I mean? So, everyone, everyone learns stuff during a crisis. See, I mean,

Andrew Stotz 14:51
well, let's, you know, I think one of the things that I think we're all kind of wondering is like, we're seeing the commercial real estate industry. kind of getting clobbered. Already we saw with the pandemic or with the pandemic response that buildings were hollowed out, people aren't necessarily coming back to those buildings, those community banks have exposure to a lot of real estate that's really on the ground work that they do. And the, if I look at the balance sheet of the banks, particularly, that's a regional banks, they have cash on their balance sheet, and they have government bonds, they can now get those government bonds over to the Fed and get a little more cash. But still, they have a large amount, and they have some mortgage loans, but they can pass those mortgage loans on to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and get those off their balance sheet and they got cash. So really what they're left with is this commercial real estate and business loans and consumer loans. And I guess the question is like, is this, you know, the Fed can't buy commercial real estate right now, from the banks. But one of the questions I have in my mind is, are they going to come up with a vehicle where these guys are going to be in such a trouble that, you know, there's, there's 100,000 buildings in America that are never going to have the occupancy that they had in the past? And therefore the economic value of those buildings is going to go down? Is that really a crisis? You know, is that really a problem? And I haven't been in the US in seven years. So I haven't even really seen you know, what's going on. But it just maybe just your feel from what you've heard from people, you know, and what you're thinking about that as far as those regional banks.

Jack Farley 16:37
Right. So a lot of great questions in there. I think that when it comes to commercial real estate, I think a lot of the fundamentals weakness is in offices, because you'll I'm in an office right now. But the fact is that a lot of companies, including blue chip, corporations, are still allowing people to work from home or do part time work two days a week, three days a week. So just the marginal bid for Office real estate, and that square footage is just not as strong as it used to be. And I think you can see that in the real estate investment trust stocks, like SLG, or vno. So I feel like you're having price discovery in the public markets where you know, you're getting a quote on these things every second, but in the private real estate market, you're not and on the bank balance sheets, where they've lent against this. So they have real estate debt, you're not it's still being quoted apart, I think almost it's fair to say almost all of the stresses in the banking sector that we've seen in the past, we're recording this on May 10. Is has nothing to do with that. I think that's all to come in the future. And that, you know, the shoe will drop how heavy of a blow it will be we'll see. But I'm pretty confident that everything that we've seen, most of what we've seen has been interest rate risk related, not credit rate risk, not not fundamentals of the of the loans, on the asset side and the liability side. And you know, as a former Bank guy, you know, a lot more about this than I do, right?

Andrew Stotz 18:05
Yeah, it's interesting. It's like, it's like the Fed dropped the bomb in the middle of the ocean, and there's this massive wave that just goes fish, and there's just one. And if you can survive that one, you know, okay, now you recover. And okay, now that now we go back to kind of normal? And what are the issues that these banks are facing? So yeah, I would say that that's, you know, one angle to it is that it's just kind of a one off. I mean, I was always kind of a surprise that the Fed raised rates so aggressively. I just thought that that's such a dangerous thing. But you know, what do I know? But yeah, so our most important question of this whole interview is the one that I'm going to ask you right now. And that is, now it's time to share your worst investment ever. And since no one goes into their worst investment, thinking it will be. Tell us a bit about the circumstances leading up to and then tell us your story.

Jack Farley 18:59
Well, Andrew, for the name of the show, I knew this question was coming. And I have to say it's not even close. Because when you unless things go disastrously wrong, you know, the most you can lose is everything. So the least you'll be left with is zero unless you use margin, which, you know, we don't recommend, obviously. But yeah, this is investment that purely went to zero. And so the circumstances that went into it actually started very fortuitously, I had gotten quite bearish on the market in January and February of 2020. And just another thing I want to say is, like AI is a really important skill is to know when you were right because you were smart and made a decision of versus when you were lucky. This is purely on the ladder thing like I realized now it's just because I was consuming a lot of macro content that was quite quite bearish, which is not good. track record for your long term track. Record success is just like do what the people in the podcasts are saying like, but I got quite bearish on the market. So I bought a lot of long term, a lot of put options on the markets and individual stocks, but in particular, Tesla, so I bought a lot of probably 30 day, 60 day, 90 day options on Tesla in January, really, honestly, in February, so I actually timed it perfectly so and these stocks, you know, as you know, all individual stocks crashed throughout early March, and the volatility on them also crashed. So I like I made so much more money than I even thought was possible. Because it's like I unrealized on the realized thing I probably made like it was a four bagger five bagger. But then because implied volatility was so much more expensive, and I was long volatility, it was like a 20 bagger. So I literally, you know, at a time, you know, I was young to the investment world. You know, my first investment actually was in a pharmaceutical company in 2014, that actually, like weeks after I bought it, that cut in half. So, you know, which I think is a good thing is much better, to be bad, bad luck in the beginning, because if you started to think about it, but but that's, that's probably my second worst investment, but my worst. So I wonder the time when, you know, people who had bought bonds that were up 5%, when the market had crashed, 30% they were feeling smart and good. And they were going around talking about how much money they had made. So I had just this huge asymmetric explosion of profitability at the time when the global world like, had a giant financial meltdown. And everyone was losing all this money and in the market. Which,

Andrew Stotz 21:41
by the way, this is like a dream, right that you are you and for the listeners that don't understand options, basically, what you're talking about is that you made a bet that particular market or particular stocks, were going to go down, and you would profit if they went down. And they went down.

Jack Farley 21:59
Yes. And then the odds that the market was assigning to that it would continue to go down and be volatile was very high. So just the particular flavor of security that I was long was like suddenly became the hottest thing you know, is my volatility went from like 60 to 200. I think you know, how the story ends? Yes,

Andrew Stotz 22:18
I'm anticipating it, but it's interesting.

Jack Farley 22:23
Yeah. So those are the circumstances that led to that. And so it's very favorable to start off with what so you're sitting on

Andrew Stotz 22:30
massive, massive unrealized gains, correct, continue.

Jack Farley 22:38
And I continue to consume this bearish macro content that by the way, was not just coming from, you know, individual like, alternative sources, but but CNBC, Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal, and you know, how you can talk into the media later of it's extremely backward looking. So the media was probably the most bearish, the on March 23, which was the absolute bottom in the stock market. And I continue to listen to it. And when the stock market rallied from March 23 to April 1, I was told it was just a bear market rally. And I believed it. So I did. So you know, my 20 bagger became a 13 bagger. And then the 30 bagger came was eight bagger. And as the market continues to grind higher, the bear market rally is coming. And yeah, I did not realize again at all that I realized a loss because that position went to zero. So you know, $1 to $20 to zero. And looking back, like I knew when that happened, that that was really dumb, and I was embarrassed about it. But I like looking back, I just realized just how huge of a mistake it was. Because even if you went from 20 to 13, you still don't even know what from 20 to $1.20. You still sit should monetize it. Like that's not the market doesn't know your position. Your p&l. Profit Loss does not know that it was a 20 bagger. It's still you were up 20% on that. Yeah, it's so horrible.

Andrew Stotz 24:11
Yeah, yeah. I'm one of my guests recently said one of the things that I loved and I just never forget it. He says the market is a predator coming after your money, and

Jack Farley 24:26
I think it is in a way because the investors are predators and they're going after the market but the market so we're just going after each other trying to beat the market and can only be gotten if someone else loses. And I really do think has to be to be true for the market itself is not a zero sum but the stocks are and trading is so yeah, it's really tough to beat the market. And, you know, I've made a tweet maybe about a year ago, when I was having some favorable views sold as well, when I, you know, on a certain thing that that certain time horizon that my brokerage track, I had beaten the market and I said like, the ultimate hack is just to beat the stock market. And then as soon as you do just invest in the s&p 500 for the rest of your life, and then you'll always, of course, I did not listen to my advice. Yeah,

Andrew Stotz 25:18
yeah, well, the thing that I tried to teach particularly, I wrote a book called How to start building your wealth investing in the stock market, which I wrote for women. In fact, I wrote for five women, which are my five nieces. And when they graduated from high school, I gave them each $3,000, which was the minimum to set up a Vanguard account. And then I got them started in investing. And I basically just told them, just buy the Vanguard VT fund and owns 9000 stocks, you know, and just, you know, contribute to that. But what I tried to help them understand is you got to separate you hear in the podcast, I say, create, grow and protect your Well, what I didn't realize when I was young, I mean, I still did pretty well, but that the first thing you need to do is set up your your wealth creation engine. And that is either a business that you own, or it could be your salary. If you're making $10,000 a month and you're spending 9900, well, you're not generating much savings. But if you can say earn 10,000 and spend 6000, you've generated 4000 in savings, you've created wealth of 4000. Now the question is how do you then view that creation of wealth and shift it into the growing and that's where I look at the stock market. So that's why I say create, grow and then protect after all the work I've done on the podcast, but let me ask you, what are the How would you summarize the lessons that you learned?

Jack Farley 26:39
That's a great, great question. Number one, don't be cocky. When you a windfall is bequeath to you to the market and your fortune has assigned to you lucky enough to be the one who wins the day. Don't assume that you're it because you're so smart, because most likely it's not. And in my case, it definitely was not. And realize those gains, and at the very least, trim the position down. And, you know, honest, honestly, it was only one put option, when there was only one but one contract went up by so much that it actually became like your what, what I considered a large amount of money, but it was only one contract. So I was like, Oh, well, if I had five contracts, I would sell two, but I can't because it's just one. Now I view like, you know, just I realized that that's so dumb, I should have either you sold the contract, or you entered into a roll that down and rolled down to the lower strike, bought some of the underlying stock to hedge the belt. Like I didn't know any of that at all. So that's another thing is don't play in markets, where you don't know what you're doing, unless you view it. As the education costs the tuition for learning in the market, which it kind of was for me, but I didn't realize that at the time. And yeah, like, if you were a doctor, and you're being a doctor 70 hours a week at your profession, like, why would you ever think that you would make money trading vix futures against someone who does that for their living there, that's their doctor, that's their surgery, you know, they're going to crush you, like 100% of the time, not 90 100% of the time, you know, you choosing Microsoft over Apple against a portfolio manager, you have a better chance there. But yeah, the more complex, the markets, the and the less you know about them. And the more sophisticated the institutional investors are, the more chance you will be crushed over time. Don't I forgot what I was just say,

Andrew Stotz 28:51
but let's go let's go back to that doctor thing. Because that's, that's a great example of creating, grow, protect wealth, the objective of a doctor, you know, that they're generating really great wealth through, they're creating wealth through their work. And if they can shift their mindset to see the market as a place to grow their wealth not to create, well, then that can help them to set up a different strategy when they go into that market versus I'm gonna nail this and I'm gonna, you know, I've got the great strategy and I've read all this stuff, you know, no, no, don't view the market as a place. You're gonna create your wealth, view it as a place you're gonna grow your wealth.

Jack Farley 29:30
Yeah, I think that's phenomenally true. And yeah, I'd also say no, you know, be take take take take your profits.

Andrew Stotz 29:43
Yeah. Yeah. And I'd say in my, what I would say about this, is that having a way of understanding when your portfolio moves in an extreme way, up or down, we prepared ahead of time for What you're going to do so for instance, in stock portfolios, I have stop losses. I mean, I'm a fundamental analyst, and I love the idea of No, it's getting cheaper, I'm gonna buy more but a Come on, I cannot survive, and my clients cannot survive that down cycle going all the way down, you know, 50 60%, or whatever. And also, I know that, you know, when something's going up a lot, take some of that, and put it into other parts of the portfolio. So I think that's really be as soon as you've made a major gain. And one of the easiest ways to do this, take half of the position off, don't take the whole thing. Just take half. And if that's a stock that's crashing, take half that position on, and then you can say, okay, fine, for the other half, I'll let it go down, and I'll try to buy more. And for something that's going up a huge amount, take half the position. It's one of the tricks that we can play, you know, for our minds, to help us feel more comfortable to do that. But let me ask you based on what you've learned from this experience, and what you've continued to learn, like, what would be one action that you'd recommend for our listeners to help them avoid suffering the same fate? They're in the same situation? is a huge game going on? What do they do?

Jack Farley 31:19
I would say, don't play in markets, where you don't know what you're doing. Like, at the time, I would have said, I can't cut my position half because I only have one contract. Whereas now I said, you could roll down the street, you can buy the underlying you can sell the country sell the underlying. Um, and yeah, and if you do want to have the tuition, but your costs, do it on a stock that costs $5, where you know, the option is five cents. So your $5 can turn into $50 or $0, which feels a lot nicer.

Andrew Stotz 31:51
Keep it simple. All right, well, let me ask you, what's a resource that you'd recommend for our listeners, obviously, there's your podcast. Are there any others or tell us about also, you know, what you to listen to expect if they go to your list, listen to your podcast,

Jack Farley 32:06
they should expect a deep dive conversation on finance that is typically associated with what's going on now. So I've been doing a lot of bank episodes. But I also like to incorporate longer term themes. Like I just did a history interview about the Federal Reserve's not just its founding in 1913, but changes that were made to it in 1917, that actually enabled it to sort of print a lot more money because of a very various things. So yeah, I'd say a deep dive, long form. Intellectual honesty, balls and strikes. I'm, I try and break things down for the audience. Because a lot of things are complex, and like I'm learning in real time along with the audience, but yeah, like, a lot. It's like going to be you know, if you watch one of the TV networks here, this is really salesy. Sounds like a little cocky, but you have one of the TV like, finance networks, that's going to be like, drinking a beer, and like what listen to my show for guidance is going to be like doing, you know, psychedelic or someone

Andrew Stotz 33:13
with a glass of wine. Yeah, this is not crack. Yes. All right. So last question, what's your number one goal for the next 12 months?

Jack Farley 33:22
Grow the show a lot of producers kickass content.

Andrew Stotz 33:26
And just this give us an idea, like, how many episodes you feel like, it makes sense in the next 12 months for you? Like what does it mean by grow the show

Jack Farley 33:37
just the amount of listeners on YouTube as well as audio only. So the show as a podcast, we heard on Apple podcasts, Spotify, all the other podcast apps, and then on YouTube as well, under the channel called Block works macro, which is sort of the parent company and for guidance as the name of the show. So yeah, just that total number just should go up like a moving average of that should go up. And if it does, move up by law, I'll be happy and if it doesn't move up, I'll be you know, not happy and motivated to do it again, in terms of Yeah, like it's it's meant to be theory for the audience is an interview program like yourself, so it's never just me is me and someone else Sometimes me and two other people like I've done a lot of interviews with Joseph weighing. The Fed guy has absolutely blown up over the past year and we sometimes you have another guest on but it's not just me. So like it's it's a lot better than just just me like, um, you know, I I fundamentally don't know myself as someone who like has a lot to say about markets like and if I do is because I've heard it from a guest you know what I mean? So it's always like the guests are really what drive it. So it's all about having the best guests and yeah, I'm really excited about some of the guests who are coming up and forward guidance like over the next month, two months I'm having on Sheila Bair, who used to run the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation who's shut down the largest bank in American history, like the record. First Republic was the second largest bank. It was the third largest bank like she shut down the largest bank in 2009. I'm having someone on he used to be on the Federal Open Market Committee that the federal Federal Reserve having him on, like in a month or two, yeah, I'm targeting a lot of big names. So that's exciting for guidance bloggers, macro.

Andrew Stotz 35:24
Yep. And I'll have links to that in the show notes. And you can just type it into the podcast app that you listen to forward guidance, and you'll enjoy it I'm sure as much as I do. All right, listeners, there you have it another story of loss to keep you winning. Remember, I'm on a mission to help 1 million people reduce risk in their lives. If you're not enjoying that mission, just go to my worst investment ever.com and join my free weekly become a better investor newsletter to reduce risk in your life. As we conclude, Jack, I want to thank you again for joining our mission and on behalf of ACE Dance Academy, I hereby award you alumni status for turning your worst investment ever into your best teaching moment. Do you have any parting words for the audience?

Jack Farley 36:06
Thank you for that. It's honored to be alumni. I feel like a winner for having been on the show and I can't believe that I haven't heard of this before you email me and I'm really glad you did because you've done a phenomenal job and yeah, I'm just I'm just really glad that you really glad this conversation.

Andrew Stotz 36:25
Well, we're glad to meet you and learn from you. And that's a wrap on another great story to help us create, grow and protect our well fellow risk takers. Let's celebrate that today. We added one more person to our mission to help 1 million people reduce risk in their lives. This is your worst podcast host Andrew Stotz saying I'll see you on the upside.