Ep570: Andrew Stotz – 10 Harsh Realities Shaping Our Future

By Andrew Stotz | 07/08/2022 |

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10 Harsh Realities Shaping Our Future

In this episode, Andrew Stotz identifies and explains 10 harsh realities shaping our future.

Download the 10 Harsh Realities cheat sheet.

1. Politicians created the mess we are in
2. The Fed is going to crash the market
3. Europe (esp. Germany) is destroying itself
4. It’s a US-Russia, not a Russia-Ukraine showdown
5. Gov’ts pushed 100m people into poverty and starvation
6. America openly states that China is enemy #1
7. The US, not China, is the biggest global threat
8. World leaders are not nearly as wise as they may appear
9. Mass refugee influx is being used as a political tool to cause social disruption
10. Germany is rearming 77 years after WWII

1. Politicians created the mess we are in

They kept interest rates too low for too long. They shut down global economies, destroying supply chains and reducing the supply of goods. They borrowed to finance massive spending, and they produced unparalleled money printing. They bailed out the bond market in 2020. They allowed the war in Ukraine to escalate, causing food shortages.

2. The Fed is going to crash the market

The Fed pumped up the stock market with a decade of ultra-low interest rates. This low-interest rate policy incentivized borrowing, leading to corporate malinvestment. Now the Fed is raising rates into what looks to be a recession.

3. Europe (esp. Germany) is destroying itself

Germany and Europe had no reason to stop oil and gas from Russia. They had been improving commercial relationships (Remember: Trade brings peace). Germany’s transition to green energy didn’t produce the energy needed to replace its fossil fuel and nuclear power wind-down. Rising energy prices are crippling German industry and consumers.

4. It’s a US-Russia, not a Russia-Ukraine showdown

The US sees Russia as its arch-enemy and has been closing in on it since the 1991 break up of the Soviet Union. Since 2008, the US, through its proxy, NATO, has been trying to get on Russia’s borders by bringing Georgia and Ukraine into NATO. Don’t be deceived by US concern for Ukraine. Ukraine is just a means for the US to get at Russia.

3 April 2008: Bucharest Summit Declaration, Paragraph 23: “NATO welcomes Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO…Today we make clear that we support these countries’ applications for Membership Action Plan.”

5. Governments pushed 100 million people into poverty and starvation

Global economy lockdowns were estimated to have pushed 100 million people into poverty. As many as 70 million of them are in India. Instead of negotiating peace, experts expect that the continued war in Ukraine will push 100 million people into starvation, most of them in Africa.

All the while, the rich get richer at a faster pace. According to The Guardian, “The 400 richest Americans added $4.5tn to their wealth last year [2020], a 40% rise….”

6. America openly states that China is enemy #1

China had considerable respect for America and US capitalism and benefits from being a friend, not an enemy of the US. The US Department of Defense now openly states that China is America’s #1 enemy, and you can expect the US to pursue this policy until it provokes a war with China.

“The Department will act urgently to sustain and strengthen deterrence, with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as our most consequential strategic competitor….” – US Department of Defense

7. The US, not China, is the biggest global threat

US gov’t recognizes Taiwan as part of China. In January 1979, the US recognized the PRC as the sole legal gov’t of China and acknowledged, but did not endorse, that Taiwan is part of China.

Hong Kong was forcibly taken and established as a colony of the British Empire in 1841 and eventually handed back to China.

Since 1986, the US has participated and interfered in the replacement of foreign governments, e.g., Afghanistan, Bolivia, Bosnia, Croatia, Haiti, Honduras, Iran, Iraq, Kyrgyzstan, Liberia, Libya, Macedonia, Palestine, Panama, Paraguay, Philippines, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Ukraine, Yugoslavia, and Zaire (Congo).

8. World leaders are not nearly as wise as they may appear

The Greens of Germany got it wrong.

US pharmaceutical regulators may have put the companies they regulate above the people they represent. Big Pharma spends massively on lobbying politicians and media. The regulators are captured; in Australia 96% of the regulator’s budgets are paid by Pharma, in Europe the number is 89%, in the UK 86%, in Japan 85%, and in the US 65%. The industry has been fined US$87bn since 2000.

Fed officials aren’t as smart as they appear. Yellen and Powell both said inflation is transitory and now say that a recession isn’t coming. Econ 101 tells us that a reduction in the supply of goods and an increase in money supply both cause inflation.

9. Mass refugee influx is being used as a political tool to cause social disruption

Europe (mainly Germany) has been absorbing refugees fleeing mostly US conflicts. US Democrats are allowing massive migration across its southern border. In April 2022, more than 234,000 people entered the US illegally, the highest in a single month in recorded US history. A 1,376% increase from April 2020 under the Trump administration.

And famine is likely to increase migration flows from Africa.

10. Germany is rearming 77 years after WWII

Germany was disarmed after WWI by the Treaty of Versailles. Then broken into four zones after WWII, led by Americans, British, French, and Soviets. From 1945 the Allies destroyed military equipment, armies, and industry capacity. In 2022, the German government approved a €100bn military defense budget, double 2021, making it the world’s 3rd largest military spender. To achieve this, they needed to amend its constitution and a two-thirds majority in both chambers of parliament.

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About the show & host, Andrew Stotz

Welcome to My Worst Investment Ever podcast hosted by Your Worst Podcast Host, Andrew Stotz, where you will hear stories of loss to keep you winning. In our community, we know that to win in investing you must take the risk, but to win big, you’ve got to reduce it.

Your Worst Podcast Host, Andrew Stotz, Ph.D., CFA, is also the CEO of A. Stotz Investment Research and A. Stotz Academy, which helps people create, grow, measure, and protect their wealth.