Past performance is no guarantee of future success 

I had listened to this show and had been very lucky with my first investment; a Danish company making windmills since 1945, Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS:DC, VWS.DE), which no one seemed to have much faith in anymore. I had bought the stock at a share price of around 25 euro. The radio expert believed it was a goner, but I bought it as my first stock ever and sold it 1.5 years later for a share price of 300 euro! Not a bad gain at all. 

One win can make an investor brim with confidence 

So there I was, standing on a mountain of pride, believing that I could do much better than all the experts on Earth; the king of money, top of the heap. So the next time that the expert on the radio said don’t buy, I knew I should buy. So I went back to the radio show, heard about a stock that was very low and bought a large amount of these shares. This would teach me that I was not the king of money, not even close to top of the heap, and that I couldn’t beat the experts. Basically, I ended up losing my second investment ever. The stock was worth nothing, just like the expert had said. 

Andrew’s takeaways – Avoid these errors to become a better investor 

Only listen to experts when they’re right 

The reality is that experts are hardly any better at investing than the rest of us. There are a handful that may be skilled, but these are hard to find, and you can lose a lot trying to find them. There’s nothing wrong with getting ideas from experts, but then you’ve got to do your research to support your investment thesis. But even doing that research does not assure success, which is why it’s important to write down your risk plan. What will you do if the stock goes down? At what price will you act? 

Being contrarian only works sometimes 

It’s quite a feeling of satisfaction when you bet against the crowd, and you’re right. Or when you bet against an individual and you are right. But don’t let the overconfidence of such an experience take you over, as no one is consistently right or consistently wrong. Okay, well maybe your ex-girlfriend or wife. 

Mistakes in this story 

1. Failed to do their own research 

• Relied on the assumptions of others 
• Inadequately researched type of investment 
• Ignored a professional’s advice 

2. Failed to properly assess and manage risk 

• Assumed past performance would continue 

The post Overreliance on or Ignoring the Experts Can Both Do Damage   appeared first on My Worst Investment Ever.

Lessons learned from a basic overreaction  

I let fear and short-term price movement drive my investment management decision. A rigorous review of the company’s fundamentals (financial modeling as just one tool to use in such a review) would have been a more reliable ground on which to base my actions. Furthermore, thorough analysis could have helped me to anticipate the near-term catalysts for the stock.

Andrew’s takeaways – Avoid these errors to become a better investor 

The investment that wasn’t 

Many stories of people’s worst investments are investments that the person didn’t make; often investments that they talked themselves out of. They saw Amazon or Walmart or Apple early but they didn’t buy. The particular mistake in the story above has to do with short-term thinking. I’m often amazed at how people are willing to take significant risks in a day or week or month, yet they rarely think about the long term. 

Your time horizon is much longer than you think 

The average 30-year-old person hopes to retire at 60, which means they have a 30-year investment horizon. But it doesn’t stop there; they also have another 20- or 30-year retirement horizon, a time during which they will need that money to grow. Create a long-term, diversified strategy; implement it. Let your investments grow, and you will be far ahead of most people. 

Mistakes in this story 

1. Failed to do their own research 

• Relied on the assumptions of others 

3. Driven by emotion or flawed thinking 

• Let emotions drive their investment decisions 

The post Missed Opportunity Stems from Hasty Decision on a Stock  appeared first on My Worst Investment Ever.

Investor puts singular belief in property salesperson

I just believed what the real estate broker told me and now I’m at risk of defaulting and losing all the down payments that I have made over the course of more than two years, which amounts to 350,000 Philippine pesos (US$6,551). 

Apparent ploy has building finished ahead of schedule 

The broker had originally told me I would have four years to pay off the down payment at zero interest, but the condo project was completed in just two years. Now the developer is demanding full payment for all the outstanding balance, which amounts to 3 million pesos.  

Failed to look at hidden fees, developer’s reputation  

I also did not know that there would be miscellaneous and bank-processing fees that would pile up to hundreds of thousands of pesos. I have been talking to the banks but I do not qualify for a loan. I also found out recently that the developer has a bad record for customer service.  

Lack of checks can wreak havoc on a portfolio 

I was unprepared for all of these issues to arise and I have been stressed for more than two months already. If I could go back in time, I would double check all of the broker’s promises, clarify the vague statements in the contract, and ask previous homebuyers about their experience with the developer. 

Andrew’s takeaways – Avoid these errors to become a better investor 

Check the references not given 

A critical step when you invest with anybody is to check references. Your first step in this process is to ask the individual or company if they have some references to recommend. But of course, expect these references to give good recommendations. True due diligence means to try to seek out people who have dealt with this company or individual before. Ask everybody you know if they have had any experience with this company or individual. Work hard to seek out the people who have worked with them and get references from them. This is where you find the really valuable things that can better help you make a truly informed decision. 

What matters is that you have the cash at the time of transfer 

When buying a condo that is about to be constructed, it’s critical to try to understand when it will be completed. It is at that time that full payment will be due. Right from the beginning, work with the banks to make sure you have financing lined up on that day. And from this story, we have learned to make sure you ask: “What if the condo is finished early and I don’t have bank financing lined up at that time?” 

Mistakes in this story 

1. Failed to do their own research 

• Relied on the assumptions of others 
• Neglected to read contract completely 

2. Failed to properly assess and manage risk 

• Bought an illiquid investment 

4. Misplaced trust 

• Failed to review a person’s history and references 

The post Classic Case of Caveat Emptor (Let the Buyer Beware) appeared first on My Worst Investment Ever.

In theory, it should have been a good idea to invest in the company I worked for

As part of my 401(k) plan, I was given the choice of different funds in which to invest my retirement contributions, along with the choice of investing some of my retirement in shares of the company at which I worked.

Note: In the United States, a 401(k) plan is the tax-qualified, defined-contribution pension account. Under the plan, retirement savings contributions are provided, and sometimes matched, by an employer, and deducted from the employee’s paycheck before taxation.

Giant company operated across generations ends up in bankruptcy court

Tragically, even though my company had been around for generations, it eventually went bankrupt and my shares in the company became almost worthless. And by almost worthless, I mean, I eventually received a check stemming from the court proceedings about six years later for about US$2.75.

Don’t put all of your investments in one basket

Investing your retirement money into the same company where you work is a terrible idea so a dividend reinvestment program offered by your own company may sound nice on paper, but you are only making others rich and are not properly diversifying your personal risk.

Andrew’s takeaways – Avoid these errors to become a better investor

Invest in the company you work for with caution

Many companies offer employees stock-ownership opportunities. If you can buy the company’s shares at a discount to the market price or if the company matches your investment, it could be very valuable. If that’s the case, it could be in your best interest to put as much money as possible into it. Just don’t stay invested in that stock forever.

Try to avoid concentration risk

Many stock-ownership plans require you to own the shares over a long period. In such cases, you are locked in. So, if you put your maximum amount into the program and you’re locked in for a long time, you will be very exposed to this one company. Of course, we all like to think we know that this company will survive and thrive, but in reality, nobody knows. Your best solution is to maximize the contribution that makes you the most money but to try to exit portions of that position as soon as you reach the time that you are allowed to sell. In this way you capture part of the benefit that the company is giving you, but you don’t get yourself overexposed to that one stock.

Mistakes in this story

1. Failed to do their own research

• Relied on the assumptions of others

2. Failed to properly assess and manage risk

• Assumed past performance would continue
• Failed to diversify
• Invested in the company they worked for

5. Failed to monitor their investment

• Failed to review investment strategy regularly

The post Always View Yesterday’s Successes Through Today’s Glasses appeared first on My Worst Investment Ever.

Ignoring major corrections in the industry

A year later, I revisited the stock after it had fallen from its highs. “This is a good company,” I thought. “It will continue to be a great investment.” I was heavily biased and ignored the research coming out about the revolutionary shale industry.

Pitfall revealed in misguided over-reliance on analyst coverage

Moreover, I was relying heavily on third-party-analyst coverage that was screaming “BUY!”, even as the stock was falling daily. The obvious thing to do? Average down of course! In my mind, this stock was a winner and the share price would surely rebound.

‘Past performance is no guarantee of future results’

However, that was sadly not to be the case. After enduring a 30% loss on a very averaged down position, I had to accept the reality that it would be a tough road ahead for this company, so I took the loss and sold my whole position in the stock. The fact is, the stock did not owe me anything. Just because it did well for me in the past, did not mean the industry or fundamentals could not deteriorate.

Sometimes you must kill the darling of your investments

So, the upsetting lesson for me was that a stock does not know that you own it or what it cost you to buy it. Avoid falling in love with any of the securities you own – they are only tools to help you achieve your investment goals. Try to approach your investments with as much objectivity as you can and recognize the limitations of analysts’ reports and price targets.

Andrew’s takeaways – Avoid these mistakes to become a better investor

Industry conditions can and do change, and specialists will respond faster than you

One major risk of investing in any individual stock is the risk that something major changes in the industry in which the company is operating. These changes can start small at first and can seem to have little impact, but they can gather steam. Also, professionals who follow an industry for a living, as well as company insiders, will almost always move faster than you.

Financial advisers don’t always put investors’ best interests first

One of the big lessons of my career is that financial professionals are driven by many different factors outside the one that you wish they cared about most – the performance of your investments. I prove this in my Ph.D. research about the lack of accuracy of sell-side financial analysts. You can never eliminate conflicts of interest in the world, and particularly in the financial world, which is why you want to choose financial advice from people who disclose their conflicts of interest. Also, it is often the case that brokers are cheerleaders for stocks rather than thoughtful analysts.

Overconfidence can make an investment’s decline even worse

One of the toughest risks you will face is what to do when a stock price is falling. When you buy a stock at 100 and it goes to 110 you feel great, but when it goes to 90, according to Daniel Kahneman’s and Amos Tversky’s Prospect Theory, you feel about two times worse than you felt great when it went up 10. This will cause you to make mistakes when prices are falling. Often, we are overconfident in our investment decisions, and therefore when the share price starts falling, we think if we liked it at 100 we should like it even more at 90.

However, a clearer way to think of this is that maybe your analysis was correct but that you just bought the stock at the wrong time. Some of my research shows that, over a year, if a stock falls by 20% to 25%, in most markets, you would be better off selling it and holding cash. But, no matter how you might handle this situation, make sure you have thought ahead and written down what you will do when the share price falls.

Even top stocks can take a hit so if fortune’s winds change, take action and let them go

Sometimes we like companies and their management so much, we know them so well, that we think they will always be successful and be a good investment. But things change for companies; industries get tougher, senior management changes. Remember that the success of the past will not guarantee success in the future.

Mistakes in this story

1. Failed to do their own research

• Relied on the assumptions of others

2. Failed to properly assess and manage risk

• Assumed past performance would continue
• Bought more as the price went down

3. Were driven by emotion or flawed thinking

• Got too emotionally attached to an investment

5. Failed to monitor their investment

• Failed to review investment strategy regularly

Learn about the six ways you will lose your money and how to avoid them here.

The post How a ‘Good Company’ Can Still Mean a Bad Investment appeared first on My Worst Investment Ever.