Past performance is no guarantee of future success 

I had listened to this show and had been very lucky with my first investment; a Danish company making windmills since 1945, Vestas Wind Systems A/S (VWS:DC, VWS.DE), which no one seemed to have much faith in anymore. I had bought the stock at a share price of around 25 euro. The radio expert believed it was a goner, but I bought it as my first stock ever and sold it 1.5 years later for a share price of 300 euro! Not a bad gain at all. 

One win can make an investor brim with confidence 

So there I was, standing on a mountain of pride, believing that I could do much better than all the experts on Earth; the king of money, top of the heap. So the next time that the expert on the radio said don’t buy, I knew I should buy. So I went back to the radio show, heard about a stock that was very low and bought a large amount of these shares. This would teach me that I was not the king of money, not even close to top of the heap, and that I couldn’t beat the experts. Basically, I ended up losing my second investment ever. The stock was worth nothing, just like the expert had said. 

Andrew’s takeaways – Avoid these errors to become a better investor 

Only listen to experts when they’re right 

The reality is that experts are hardly any better at investing than the rest of us. There are a handful that may be skilled, but these are hard to find, and you can lose a lot trying to find them. There’s nothing wrong with getting ideas from experts, but then you’ve got to do your research to support your investment thesis. But even doing that research does not assure success, which is why it’s important to write down your risk plan. What will you do if the stock goes down? At what price will you act? 

Being contrarian only works sometimes 

It’s quite a feeling of satisfaction when you bet against the crowd, and you’re right. Or when you bet against an individual and you are right. But don’t let the overconfidence of such an experience take you over, as no one is consistently right or consistently wrong. Okay, well maybe your ex-girlfriend or wife. 

Mistakes in this story 

1. Failed to do their own research 

• Relied on the assumptions of others 
• Inadequately researched type of investment 
• Ignored a professional’s advice 

2. Failed to properly assess and manage risk 

• Assumed past performance would continue 

The post Overreliance on or Ignoring the Experts Can Both Do Damage   appeared first on My Worst Investment Ever.

In theory, it should have been a good idea to invest in the company I worked for

As part of my 401(k) plan, I was given the choice of different funds in which to invest my retirement contributions, along with the choice of investing some of my retirement in shares of the company at which I worked.

Note: In the United States, a 401(k) plan is the tax-qualified, defined-contribution pension account. Under the plan, retirement savings contributions are provided, and sometimes matched, by an employer, and deducted from the employee’s paycheck before taxation.

Giant company operated across generations ends up in bankruptcy court

Tragically, even though my company had been around for generations, it eventually went bankrupt and my shares in the company became almost worthless. And by almost worthless, I mean, I eventually received a check stemming from the court proceedings about six years later for about US$2.75.

Don’t put all of your investments in one basket

Investing your retirement money into the same company where you work is a terrible idea so a dividend reinvestment program offered by your own company may sound nice on paper, but you are only making others rich and are not properly diversifying your personal risk.

Andrew’s takeaways – Avoid these errors to become a better investor

Invest in the company you work for with caution

Many companies offer employees stock-ownership opportunities. If you can buy the company’s shares at a discount to the market price or if the company matches your investment, it could be very valuable. If that’s the case, it could be in your best interest to put as much money as possible into it. Just don’t stay invested in that stock forever.

Try to avoid concentration risk

Many stock-ownership plans require you to own the shares over a long period. In such cases, you are locked in. So, if you put your maximum amount into the program and you’re locked in for a long time, you will be very exposed to this one company. Of course, we all like to think we know that this company will survive and thrive, but in reality, nobody knows. Your best solution is to maximize the contribution that makes you the most money but to try to exit portions of that position as soon as you reach the time that you are allowed to sell. In this way you capture part of the benefit that the company is giving you, but you don’t get yourself overexposed to that one stock.

Mistakes in this story

1. Failed to do their own research

• Relied on the assumptions of others

2. Failed to properly assess and manage risk

• Assumed past performance would continue
• Failed to diversify
• Invested in the company they worked for

5. Failed to monitor their investment

• Failed to review investment strategy regularly

The post Always View Yesterday’s Successes Through Today’s Glasses appeared first on My Worst Investment Ever.

In early 2017, I was shown an opportunity to invest in a US$6.5m simple agreement for a future equity (SAFE) note issued by BuildDirect.com Technologies Inc., a $1bn Canadian e–commerce company. 

All of business’ facets looked solid 

My client had made previous investments in the company and had a strong conviction in the team, the company, the market and this “new marketplace” opportunity. The company sells heavy construction supplies, such as tiles and granite, to contractors and home-improvement enthusiasts. 

Confidence builds when following ‘the smart money’ 

BuildDirect claimed to have developed an intelligent system to pre–position products in hubs around the country to cut the costs and time of delivery.  We were also confident because we were supposedly following “the smart money” – a major Canadian pension fund and other Silicon Valley venture capital firms were also investing. 

Many factors point to a ‘sound’ investment 

We were excited about the model; its artificial intelligence (AI) platform and the business opportunity and history of the company, which was 16 years old and had been grossing more than C$150m (US$120m) a year in revenues. We also had clients that used the company’s services.  We made the investment, which was around US$650,000. Within a few months we were notified that, as expected, our debt had been converted to equity. 

Ten months later, we learned that the CEO had been fired/asked to resign. He was the architect of the whole “marketplace” idea. Weeks later, we learned that the company had entered into receivership. It appears now to be a total loss. 

Even good ideas can lead to a premature fall 

Established companies can fail swiftly and dramatically. This company developed a very clever online marketplace, however they were utterly unable to execute it and ended up angering and losing their existing and long-standing vendors. 

Andrew’s takeaways – Avoid these errors to become a better investor 

Don’t blindly follow the smart money 

Just because big fund managers are buying into a company does not mean that those fund managers are right. They could just as much be wrong. Don’t take any comfort that you are investing with the “smart money”, meaning the professional investors. They are often under career pressures and other pressures that can lead them to bad decisions. If you want to invest, take the time to build your style and plan, and then follow it. An individual has considerable advantages compared to the pros. 

Have an exit plan 

No matter how good the investment is, no matter how experienced the others who you are investing in are, and no matter how much research you have done, always have an exit plan. Investing involves too much uncertainty; having an exit plan allows you to pre-plan what you will do when things go wrong. 

Mistakes in this story 

1. Failed to do their own research 

2. Failed to properly assess and manage risk 

• Assumed past performance would continue 
• Bought an illiquid investment 
• Lacked influence over management 

3. Driven by emotion or flawed thinking 

• Let emotions drive their investment decisions 
• Were driven by FOMO 

5. Failed to monitor their investment 

• Failed to review investment strategy regularly 

6. Invested in a start-up company 

• Invested in a start–up that lacked various sources of funds 

The post How Poor Execution Turns a Great Idea into the Worst Investment appeared first on My Worst Investment Ever.

Around 2013-2014, I had a short-term market speculative position on the Thailand Futures Exchange (TFEX) using a SET50 Futures contract. One day, the market slid around 10% because of political unrest, and I was on the losing side of the equation.    

Too busy to watch an investment 

It was a busy day at work, and I would generally not think too much about my position unless I received a call from my broker.  

I received a call. My broker told me that my position had to be forced closed. At the time, I was distracted and didn’t think carefully because of the existing demands of my day job. I told him to go ahead and close the position, but at the end of the day, the market had rebounded by around 7% to very near the previous day’s level.  

Price of distraction when playing with margins 

I didn’t think carefully that the slump was just a short-term effect and failed to ask my broker to wait for me to top up the money to the maintenance margin (the minimum amount of cash that must be maintained in a margin account) level.  

The size of loss was equivalent to that of my monthly salary at the time.  

Andrew’s takeaways – Avoid these errors to become a better investor 

Write down your plan before you start 

The first lesson from this story is that when we invest, we should set a plan. Most people go into an investment without a clear plan, particularly a plan about what to do when things go wrong. 

Make sure you have time to invest before you start 

It’s amazing the number of financial professionals I have met who don’t have enough time to take care of their own investments. I have seen many cases like the above story where the investor gets excited about the idea but doesn’t realize that they just don’t have time to follow it up. It is a reason why I often ask people to ask themselves, “do I have time to set aside for investing?” If the answer is “no”, then be very careful about investing in individual stocks or complex derivatives. 

Mistakes in this story 

   1. Failed to do their own research 

• Inadequately considered the market conventions concerning financial derivatives

   2. Failed to properly assess and manage risk 

• Failed to match investments with risk appetite 

   5. Failed to monitor their investment 

• Failed to review investment strategy regularly 

The post Futures Investor Takes Eyes Off the Ball and Pays the Price appeared first on My Worst Investment Ever.

Ignoring major corrections in the industry

A year later, I revisited the stock after it had fallen from its highs. “This is a good company,” I thought. “It will continue to be a great investment.” I was heavily biased and ignored the research coming out about the revolutionary shale industry.

Pitfall revealed in misguided over-reliance on analyst coverage

Moreover, I was relying heavily on third-party-analyst coverage that was screaming “BUY!”, even as the stock was falling daily. The obvious thing to do? Average down of course! In my mind, this stock was a winner and the share price would surely rebound.

‘Past performance is no guarantee of future results’

However, that was sadly not to be the case. After enduring a 30% loss on a very averaged down position, I had to accept the reality that it would be a tough road ahead for this company, so I took the loss and sold my whole position in the stock. The fact is, the stock did not owe me anything. Just because it did well for me in the past, did not mean the industry or fundamentals could not deteriorate.

Sometimes you must kill the darling of your investments

So, the upsetting lesson for me was that a stock does not know that you own it or what it cost you to buy it. Avoid falling in love with any of the securities you own – they are only tools to help you achieve your investment goals. Try to approach your investments with as much objectivity as you can and recognize the limitations of analysts’ reports and price targets.

Andrew’s takeaways – Avoid these mistakes to become a better investor

Industry conditions can and do change, and specialists will respond faster than you

One major risk of investing in any individual stock is the risk that something major changes in the industry in which the company is operating. These changes can start small at first and can seem to have little impact, but they can gather steam. Also, professionals who follow an industry for a living, as well as company insiders, will almost always move faster than you.

Financial advisers don’t always put investors’ best interests first

One of the big lessons of my career is that financial professionals are driven by many different factors outside the one that you wish they cared about most – the performance of your investments. I prove this in my Ph.D. research about the lack of accuracy of sell-side financial analysts. You can never eliminate conflicts of interest in the world, and particularly in the financial world, which is why you want to choose financial advice from people who disclose their conflicts of interest. Also, it is often the case that brokers are cheerleaders for stocks rather than thoughtful analysts.

Overconfidence can make an investment’s decline even worse

One of the toughest risks you will face is what to do when a stock price is falling. When you buy a stock at 100 and it goes to 110 you feel great, but when it goes to 90, according to Daniel Kahneman’s and Amos Tversky’s Prospect Theory, you feel about two times worse than you felt great when it went up 10. This will cause you to make mistakes when prices are falling. Often, we are overconfident in our investment decisions, and therefore when the share price starts falling, we think if we liked it at 100 we should like it even more at 90.

However, a clearer way to think of this is that maybe your analysis was correct but that you just bought the stock at the wrong time. Some of my research shows that, over a year, if a stock falls by 20% to 25%, in most markets, you would be better off selling it and holding cash. But, no matter how you might handle this situation, make sure you have thought ahead and written down what you will do when the share price falls.

Even top stocks can take a hit so if fortune’s winds change, take action and let them go

Sometimes we like companies and their management so much, we know them so well, that we think they will always be successful and be a good investment. But things change for companies; industries get tougher, senior management changes. Remember that the success of the past will not guarantee success in the future.

Mistakes in this story

1. Failed to do their own research

• Relied on the assumptions of others

2. Failed to properly assess and manage risk

• Assumed past performance would continue
• Bought more as the price went down

3. Were driven by emotion or flawed thinking

• Got too emotionally attached to an investment

5. Failed to monitor their investment

• Failed to review investment strategy regularly

Learn about the six ways you will lose your money and how to avoid them here.

The post How a ‘Good Company’ Can Still Mean a Bad Investment appeared first on My Worst Investment Ever.