As an excited 17-year-old who had saved up a little more than US$2,000, I wanted to buy some stock. I held small amounts of two other stocks at the time, so I purchased Coca-Cola shares with the money I had saved.  

Ignorance is not bliss when missing big future interest 

I don’t know what I was thinking when I sold the Coke shares around six months later, ignorant of the importance of “buy and hold” investing and the magic of compounding interest. I lacked any education about the market and would have to learn as an adult about compound interest and “buy and hold” or “passive” investing. 

Could have made 4,000%+ with investing know-how

It was a major error to sell the shares. Using a compounding calculator, that US$2,100 would be worth US$99,880 today. As another illustration, in 2012 Coca-Cola reported that just one of its $40 shares purchased in 1919 (with dividends reinvested, meaning compound interest comes into play) would be worth US$9.8 million today. 

Ignoring compounding means broader portfolio loss 

At the time, if I had known about the power of dividends and compounding them back to reap interest, I would have amassed a decent-sized portfolio a lot sooner, which means more time over my lifetime for compound interest to work its magic.  

I recommend that all “newbies” read the top books on investing, as well as more simple sources, such as Kiplinger’s Personal Finance, and Money magazines, to educate themselves. 

Andrew’s takeaways – Avoid these errors to become a better investor 

Not investing can be as big a mistake as investing 

Probably the most valuable lesson in investing is to stay invested over a long period. Give the compounding effect time to work in your favor. Most people get this wrong. They fail to realize that the benefits of compounding start to accrue only after 20 years. Very few people see their time horizon in decades; most see it in days. 

The importance of education 

Most young people are not taught the principles of compound interest and therefore never take advantage of it. Our society would be much better off if we just invested $10,000 into a passive fund at the birth of every child. At 8% per year, this would grow to be $1,000,000 by the time they are 60 years old. Kids around the world would be millionaires upon retirement. Unfortunately, very few people have that foresight. If you don’t read this, you could end up living “in a van down by the river”. 

Mistakes in this story 

1. Failed to do their own research 

• Inadequately researched type of investment 

2. Failed to properly assess and manage risk 

• Had no exit strategy for when things went wrong 
• Failed to set a stop-loss and follow it 

3. Driven by emotion or flawed thinking 

• Failed to invest in a familiar, good idea 

The post Hard Lesson About Compounding – Could Have Been Better with Coke appeared first on My Worst Investment Ever.

In early 2013, I had invested in another Swath OSV subsidiary, “Cruise Limited” (Cruise). At the time, Victory was a dormant subsidiary of Swath.

Between early 2013 and October 2013, the share price of Cruise appreciated substantially, the company continued to win new contracts, financial performance improved quarter-on-quarter and the financial position was sound, though the company was taking on increasing levels of debt.

In October 2013, Swath signed a deal to sell its majority ownership in Cruise to a private equity firm. The acquisition immediately required the private equity firm to buy all remaining shares. The private equity firm offered a 15% premium to the 15-day volume weighted average price prior to the offer date. The sale was completed in December 2013.

Success arising in parent company fuels overconfidence in subsidiary

Overall, the investment in Cruise resulted in a return for me of around 125% for a 10-month investment (or absolute profit of about 250,000 Singapore dollars [187,000 US dollars]), and I was brimming with confidence of course at the prospect of such returns continuing.

In November 2013, having finalized the sale of its stake in Cruise, Swath’s management decided it would invest the profits from the sale into Victory. Following the announcement of that investment in Victory, to turn it from a dormant subsidiary into a going concern, Victory’s share price immediately appreciated, further egging on my desire for similar gains.

Failed to act decisively to take an opportunity when its time had come

In early December 2013, Victory entered into a JV with a major Middle-Eastern OSV company. Following this announcement, Victory’s share price appreciated further. In hindsight, if I had invested in Victory in early November 2013 instead of early March 2014, I would have made a very handsome profit in a very short time (about 300%). However, I hesitated, I guess out of fear of the risk to what I had put in. Nonetheless, after reading about the future expansion plans for Victory in March 2014, I decided to invest.

Then came a long list of warning signs amid lack of due diligence

At the time, I did not do sufficient due diligence to review the financial position and performance of Victory, Swath, the history of the JV partner, nor the current projection/forecast surrounding the oil and gas sector.

In essence, I decided to invest due to (a) confidence that the parent entity had sufficient prior success in developing a subsidiary in the OSV sector to repeat such success, and (b) overconfidence that the oil boom would continue. Up to that point, the oil and gas sector had been through a significant boom for nearly five years, with oil prices booming past US$100, major projects being announced, and large contracts being awarded. However, in early 2014 there were numerous red flags that the good times were coming to an end.

Six months of flat or negative growth raises no alarms

In early March 2014, I invested in Victory with an amount equal to about 40% of my original capital investment in Cruise. From March 2014 to August 2014, the share price of Victory generally stagnated (rising 10% or declining 10% but across the period, generally flat).

Sector also signals ‘danger ahead’

In August 2014, the oil sector edged toward the cliff. Regardless, I held on to the notion that “it’s only a correction, and it will come back”. However, the warning signs of a major collapse were flashing. In the same month, after a correction in Victory’s share price following a slide in oil prices, I invested another amount, around 10% of the original investment I had invested into Cruise.

Stands and watches oil prices burn but again fails to act on losses

In late September 2014, oil prices went over the cliff to below US$100, then US$80 and so forth. As the price declined, I simply viewed it as a great chance to average down and grab a bargain in Victory. I had totally ignored the sector’s problems, the flow-on impact to upstream-related sectors and financial performance and position of Victory.

Refusal to set or obey stop loss stems from denial over false bottom

Rather than put in a stop-loss position and decide to accept the many losses and move on, I persisted with averaging down concluding falsely that the bottom had been reached every time a rebound occurred at a resistance level.

Between September 2014 and January 2015, however, the share price kept falling and I kept averaging down to the point that I had reinvested all my original Cruise capital.

Unable to let go of investment despite all evidence

At this point, I stopped averaging down or investing new capital. Even so, the share price continued to fall. In hindsight, I should have sold out my entire position regardless of the losses. However, I continued to hold, refusing to accept the losses, and due to the incorrect presumption that “everything will get better and I’ll get money back”.

False hopes and hurt pride prove a dangerously unprofitable mix

My overconfidence, unwillingness to own up to the loss through hurt pride, and false hope that the sinking ship would at least stay at the surface, all combined to blind me I suppose, and my fingernails remained dug into these investments.

Between January 2015 and September 2015, the share price of Victory stabilized, though it was down more than 60% from initial investment levels. In October 2015, the parent entity of Victory, Swatch, filed for bankruptcy. Accordingly, the share price of Victory fell 50% the day after, and continued to fall until November 2015.

Since, November 2015 oil prices have been on more of an upward trend, but the OSV sector has remained significantly depressed. Accordingly, while oil prices have increased, Victory’s share price has continued to decline and is now 80% down on the level it was at during my initial investment. Despite all of this, I have refused to sell, unwilling to accept I made a mistake, and still feeling a recovery is due.

The investor who hung on like a legendary bulldog

Relative to other OSV companies, Victory has achieved stronger final performance than competitors, undertaken a successful refinancing exercise and boosted its order book. However, given the extent of its prolonged losses, the amount I invested, the length of time I invested in a company with a very poor share price, and my stubbornness to abandon the position, I conclude that it the worst investment I ever made.

Andrew’s takeaways – Avoid these mistakes to become a better investor

The toughest question to answer: ‘When should I give up?’

In the world of traditional, fundamental investing, it is hard to take a loss. This is very different from traders who set up stop-loss points for each of their trades. The difficulty for fundamental investors is that they have devoted their life to trying to find good companies with good stories. They work hard to research these ideas and then they invest. When the share price goes down, the traditional fund manager will think that they see something that the market does not. But truthfully, who knows?

One way to solve this dilemma is for the traditional investor to say to himself: “My idea may have been right but maybe it was the wrong time”. A next question to ask would be: “Knowing what I know now, if I didn’t own this company today, would I buy it today?” If the answer is “No” then it is a good sign that you should exit the position.

Consider using a stop-loss as a money management tool

Assume a trader buys a stock at 100 and puts a stop-loss at 80, if the stock falls to that point the broker is supposed to sell the stock. By planning your future action, you take your emotion out of the investment. A typical fundamental investor abhors such behaviour because it would imply that he is not confident about his research conclusions.

Avoiding loss is critical

When considering long-term returns, some of our research has shown that avoiding large loss is more important that getting high returns. This is like saying that to be a successful batter in baseball it is more important to not strike out, rather than to hit homeruns. Preserve your capital by accepting that the share price can move against your position for a long time.

Mistakes in this story

2. Failed to properly assess and manage risk

• Bought more as the price went down
• Failed to set a stop-loss and follow it

3. Were driven by emotion or flawed thinking

• Failed to invest in a good, familiar idea

5. Failed to monitor their investment

• Failed to review investment strategy regularly

Learn about the six ways you will lose your money and how to avoid them here.

The post False Hope, Poor Due Diligence Blinds Oil Industry Investor appeared first on My Worst Investment Ever.

Sometimes great investment ideas are close to home and daily life

If something is great, and you use it and love it, and everyone loves it, maybe you should invest in it. I started using Amazon.com early on, say around 1998. I liked it so much I became an Amazon Prime (paid) member in June of 2006 and have been ever since.

But sadly, we miss these chances of returns that are staring us in the face

If I liked it so much and so did everyone else, why did I not buy a few shares of the stock? Now it is up 4,000% since 2006. I’ve never owned a share in the company, but I pay for the service. I then think of the old fortune-cookie wisdom – “Many a false step was made by standing still.”

Andrew’s takeaways – Avoid these mistakes to become a better investor

Sometimes the best investment opportunities are right in front of you

Learn to be aware of investment opportunities around you but keep things simple. If you’re using a product or service, and you like it, always ask the question: “How can I invest in this?” But, remember too that having a good product or good service or being a good company does not mean that it’s a good investment. That is because the share price already reflects this good news. The risk then is that you would end up buying it at a price that is too high. There are some cases in which you know of a good opportunity that you’re thinking about how to invest in it. You may even have money available to invest, but because of fear you don’t make a move. Failing to do so can be a big mistake, and of course, acting in the wrong way can be also.

Keep it simple and ‘don’t get emotional about a stock’

Emotions and long-term investing mix like drinking and driving. This is one reason why it is good to make an investment plan and stick with it because it removes some of the emotion from investing. One of the big emotions is fear of missing out (FOMO). Take a lesson from Warren Buffett, who explains that being an investor is like being a baseball batter, except that with investing you’re not penalized for not swinging. So, wait until the investment is right and you’ve done your work on it and then swing.

Mistakes in this story

1. Failed to do their own research

• Let things get too complicated

3. Were driven by emotion or flawed thinking

• Failed to invest in a familiar, good idea
• Let emotions drive their investment decisions
• Were driven by FOMO

Learn about the six ways you will lose your money and how to avoid them here.

The post Investor Paid the High Cost of Inertia appeared first on My Worst Investment Ever.